US elections and the stock market

US elections can raise important questions for investors. Learn how election cycles can affect markets and portfolios, and why investors are watching the 2026 midterms.

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Understand US elections and the markets

Explore the core questions investors often ask: what history says about election years, how elections can affect portfolios, and why uncertainty can influence market volatility.

How do US elections affect the stock market? What history shows
Explore what more than 50 years of S&P 500 data tells us about election years, political outcomes and market performance.
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How can US elections affect your portfolio?
Learn how changes in taxation, spending, trade and regulation can affect stocks, bonds, currencies and international investments in different ways.
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US elections and market volatility: Key considerations
Explore how market expectations, political uncertainty and the wider economic backdrop can interact with volatility around US elections.
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Frequently asked questions

Midterm elections take place halfway through a president’s four-year term. Voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and around one-third of the Senate, potentially changing which party controls Congress.

Control of Congress can affect the government’s ability to pass legislation on taxes, spending, trade and regulation. Investors may therefore watch the 2026 results for signs of how economic policy could develop during the remainder of the presidential term.

There is no consistent pattern. Economic growth, interest rates, inflation and corporate earnings may have a greater effect on market performance than the election result itself.

There is no single portfolio action that follows from an election alone. Political developments are one of many factors investors may consider alongside their objectives, time horizon, diversification and tolerance for risk.

Sectors such as energy, healthcare, financial services, defence, infrastructure and technology can have different exposure to changes in taxation, regulation, trade and government spending. The market impact can vary depending on the policy, the companies involved and the wider economic environment.

More about US elections and the markets

Explore Saxo’s latest and previous analysis and commentary on US elections, markets and investing.

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