Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
OP 2019: Global Transportation Tax (GTT) enacted as climate panic spreads
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The golden age of cheap travel and transportation fades into history as adverse weather changes forces the world into action.
Please note: Outrageous Predictions should not be considered as Saxo Group’s official market outlook. It is instead the events and market moves deemed outliers with huge potential for upsetting consensus views. See the full list here.
The world suffers another year of wild weather with Europe again experiencing an
extremely hot summer, setting off panic alarms in capitals around the world. With the
international aviation and shipping industries enjoying substantial tax privileges, they
become the targets of a new Global Transportation Tax (GTT) that introduces a global
ticket tax on aviation and a capital “tonnage” tax on shipping with the price linked to
carbon emission footprints.
The new tax charge is set to $50/ton of CO2 emissions which is twice previous
proposed levels and significantly above the 2018 average of €15/ ton under the
European Union’s Emissions Trading System. The new GTT pushes up air travel ticket
prices and maritime freight, increasing the general price level as the new tax is passed
on to consumers.
In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization agreed on a resolution
for a global market-based measure to address carbon emissions from aviation.
In April 2018, the International Maritime Organization announced a target to cut
maritime carbon emissions by 50% by 2050. With alarm bells going off everywhere
over climate change, politicians enforce GTT in a drastic move that bypasses voluntary
carbon trading schemes and industry initiatives in order to move more quickly.
The US and China have previously contested fuel taxes on aviation, citing the 1944
Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, but China changes its stance as a
natural progression of its fight against pollution. This forces the US to reluctantly join
forces in a global transportation tax on aviation and shipping.
Stocks in the tourism, airline and shipping industries plunge on increased uncertainty
and lower growth.
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...