For the full list of Saxo's 2019 Outrageous Predictions, click here.
The world suffers another year of wild weather with Europe again experiencing an
extremely hot summer, setting off panic alarms in capitals around the world. With the
international aviation and shipping industries enjoying substantial tax privileges, they
become the targets of a new Global Transportation Tax (GTT) that introduces a global
ticket tax on aviation and a capital “tonnage” tax on shipping with the price linked to
carbon emission footprints.
The new tax charge is set to $50/ton of CO2 emissions which is twice previous
proposed levels and significantly above the 2018 average of €15/ ton under the
European Union’s Emissions Trading System. The new GTT pushes up air travel ticket
prices and maritime freight, increasing the general price level as the new tax is passed
on to consumers.
In October 2016, the International Civil Aviation Organization agreed on a resolution
for a global market-based measure to address carbon emissions from aviation.
In April 2018, the International Maritime Organization announced a target to cut
maritime carbon emissions by 50% by 2050. With alarm bells going off everywhere
over climate change, politicians enforce GTT in a drastic move that bypasses voluntary
carbon trading schemes and industry initiatives in order to move more quickly.
The US and China have previously contested fuel taxes on aviation, citing the 1944
Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, but China changes its stance as a
natural progression of its fight against pollution. This forces the US to reluctantly join
forces in a global transportation tax on aviation and shipping.
Stocks in the tourism, airline and shipping industries plunge on increased uncertainty
and lower growth.
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.