Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Positioning for short Nikkei, things to get worse before they get better
Trade View
Strategic Trade / Sell
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Instrument: NK225c1
Price Target: Index level 21,660
Market Price: Index level 21,730
Background:
Trade tariffs and trade wars are just shifting into higher gear. The combination of potential auto tariffs, a stronger yen and risk-off could set the scene for a triple hit for the Nikkei, which is also struggling technically (it has broken through its 200-day moving average and is failing to hold above 22,000).
I think its only a question of time before we see the next round of tariffs from the US, and potentially more announcement this Friday or over the weekend.
Parameters:
Entry: 21,730
Stop: –
Target: 21,660
Time Horizon: Strategic
Management And Risk Description:
Position is 1x capital, so for the Macro Monday book that is circa $10m.
The potential key risk here is that trade disputes get solved sooner rather than later, leading to a relief rally in the Nikkei. A weaker yen could also complicate manners as that tends to be supportive for the Nikkei.
Trading Plan
For now its putting out a line on the short side on the Nikkei, looking to potentially add to the short at the 22,000 level – if we get there. And then to add a long S&P futures leg, so this is very much building out from a portfolio composition of the Macro Monday trading book.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007? -
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Disclaimer