Podcast: Powell in the hot seat today, will he prove sufficiently hawkish?
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we discuss the shockingly strong September US JOLTS job openings survey out yesterday that took down risk sentiment as US yields and the US dollar jumped. It's the latest data point to suggest that the Fed needs to hawkishly keep all options on the table to buy at least a bit of time and two monthly data cycles until the December 14 FOMC meeting, where it can better make a decision on whether to downshift the size of further hikes and provide its next set of projections and policy forecasts. A focus on incoming data is likely, but how will the market react? Elsewhere, we look at key stocks to watch as earnings season rolls on, industrial and precious metals and crude oil, key FX stories and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting an on FX.
Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
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French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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