Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Welcome to The 9-minute
Saxo Market Call
Summary: Today we shake up the podcast format a bit, something we plan to do from here on out by offering shorter, sub-10 minute episodes for quicker turnaround, while keeping the longer format for perhaps once or twice a week. Today, a look at Friday's very interesting session that was chock full of remarkable divergences as small caps massively outperformed big tech. Also, some thoughts on European defense, crypto, macro and FX. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
Listen to the full episode now or follow the Saxo Market Call on your favorite podcast app.
Today’s Links
Are private equity firm going for broke before they are headed for a credit event or worse? An interesting read-between-the-lines moment for the entire private equity space as Bloomberg covers the flood of debt issuance that PE companies are indulging in of late to reward themselves with dividends. Interesting claim - did AI reveal the circular financing problem in the AI space, one that could bring the whole sector crashing down? An interesting claim and a lot of data to support. A ton of news and commentary on MSTR and its possible exclusion from key indices that will trigger forced selling, with perhaps the most interesting angle on whether this represents some kind of titanic struggle between the forces of Wall Street and the megabanks and the Fed and Main Street and Trump and Bessent that want to use crypto infrastructure to restructure the entire financial system. Still trying to wrap my head around all of this. A cheeky way to look at the crypto meltdown: if Bitcoin is a currency, it is currently suffering an episode of hyperinflation - from UBS’ Paul Donovan. I always like to pass along the latest Felder Report when I notice it is out - this one from Saturday has lots of additional links to important topics, from the stark maths of the implications of all of the AI spending to what stocks might do well because of their lack of correlation with the recent market leaders. Here is someone pushing back against the perhaps over-hyped figure of Yann LeCun and the significance of his exit from Meta.
Chart of the Day
The Russell 2000 index rose a hefty 2.8% on Friday, handily outperforming the Nasdaq 100 Index rise of only 0.88%, and our AI basket of stocks actually fell -0.3% (largely thanks to Oracle’s -5.7% further dump). Some of this was on talk of higher Fed rate cut odds at the December 10 FOMC meeting, but the US 2-year yield only dropped two basis points. Is this the outperformance of the median stock a healthy sign of rotation, or a symptom of further pain as the former leading sectors in the US equity market continue to suffer in relative terms on a day of an attempted comeback in risk sentiment? Still all feels a bit wobbly to me. Questions and comments, please!
We invite you to send any questions and comments you might have for the podcast team. Whether feedback on the show's content, questions about specific topics, or requests for more focus on a given market area in an upcoming podcast, please get in touch at marketcall@saxobank.com.This content is marketing material and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.
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