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Key Stories from the past week: A correction or something worse?
Selling pressure continued across the week with US stocks sliding to one-month lows as AI valuations and rate worries bit again. The Nasdaq 100 fell -4%, with the S&P 500 and Dow down -3% and -2.5% respectively. Delayed payrolls data showed stronger job growth, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in December. Saxo’s CFD index trading clients, who have been net short the benchmarks for the past few weeks now, halved this short exposure as markets fell. Elsewhere, US dollar has seen little volatility, with pro-cyclical currencies like the commodity dollars AUD, CAD and NZD under modest pressure. The Japanese yen finally stopped weakening as the Takaichi government announced a large budget stimulus package.
Nvidia’s post earnings rally fades
Nvidia reporting strong Q3 earnings beating analyst forecasts and offered an upbeat fourth-quarter forecast. CEO Jensen Huang said demand for its Blackwell chips is “off the charts.” Nvidia’s share price reversed an early surge to finish lower as investors questioned how long AI capex can stay this strong.
Did Nvidia earnings keep the AI dream afloat?
Valuation reset continues
The wider AI complex was hit hard, with AI leaders AMD, Micron, and Oracle all down heavily on the week as investors took profits in crowded AI trades. Asia tech names like SK Hynix, Samsung, Foxconn and TSMC slumped, while SoftBank – which ditched its Nvidia stake to go all in on AI – fell 10%.
AI stocks are trading the furthest from their 52-week highs
Crypto rout
Bitcoin fell to the lowest since April as prices cratered, as did the value of other cryptocurrencies as sentiment evaporates and risk assets sell off. Selling on Thursday was triggered by nearly $900m in spot bitcoin ETF outflows, led by IBIT. ETHA also weakened further and is now posting YTD losses.
Why crypto is selling off and what it means for risk assets.
Ukraine Conflict
Shares of defence companies slipped after headlines emerged of a potential US-brokered peace initiative between Russia and Ukraine. On Thursday the US had formally handed Ukraine the peace plan which Kyiv found unacceptable based on their clear red lines.
Inside Saxo's defence theme.
Next week is Thanksgiving in the US so there will be breaks in usuals market hours over Thursday 27th and Friday 28th Nov. We’re still placing catch up with US economic data following the prolonged government shutdown. Economic data of note next week includes German Q3 GDP, US Sept PPI, US Sept Core Retail Sales (Tuesday). UK Forecast Statement, US Q3 GDP, US Initial Jobless claims, US Sept Core PCE, US Sept New Home sales (Wednesday). German Nov CPI (Friday). Next week brings earnings from Prosus NV, Alibaba, Analog Devices, Dell (Tuesday). Deere & Co (Wednesday).