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Markets charge back higher as we continue to cast a jaundiced eye.
Summary: Today, we note the US equity market strength, but also note some of the signs that the rally is of poor quality as we continue to maintain that we are in an unsustainable bubble, while recognizing we've no ability to call even a temporary top. Also, this is a critical phase for the US-China trade talks as we don't know whether the market's optimism is justified. Thoughts on geopolitics, single stock stories, macro and FX and some compelling further reading and further listening links also on the call. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s Links
My FX Update from today, as USDJPY finds new rally legs on the new minority government led by the LDP set to take charge.
Desmond Shum on X with a great post reminding us to keep our eye on the forest for the trees, that the US and China are getting a divorce. “After forty years of marriage, they’ve decided they can’t stand each other. The lawyers are in, and the accountants are dividing the joint assets — supply chains, tech, capital, markets.
CNBC on some of the names that surged on the US-Australia critical minerals deal. Caution - a lot of these have rallied like stink already.
The latest in The 100-year Pivot series of podcasts from Grant Williams and Hidden Forces’ Demetri Kofinas with guest Roger Mitchell, trying to diagnose “the cultural and spiritual malaise that seems to have taken hold of Western societies: the fraying social contract….and why life inside “the machine” leaves us lonely, angry, afraid and in dire need of human contact”. This, as well as “the dangers of politicizing religion and weaponizing faith in response to growing social and existential angst in Western societies.”
Chart of the Day - Nvidia
Worth noting that the lack of participation in the latest challenge of the market top is not seeing participation from the world’s largest company and AI leader. It even looks technically weak here.
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