What's on the Trump-Xi meeting agenda and the other key questions for the week ahead

The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan followed the European Central Bank with a rate hike while the Bank of England stayed on hold. Now the attention shifts from the central bankers to the politicians with a key meeting between President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping taking place against the backdrop of the UN General Assembly in New York. 

Here’s the key things to watch over the next week.

What's on the agenda at the Trump-Xi meeting?

What will the two leaders discuss when they sit down on Thursday? Amid warnings of an AI apocalypse in recent days there is going to be a big focus on this area. Trump said he'd discussed "guardrails" for AI with Xi at a meeting in Beijing four months ago.

The meeting comes ahead of the November expiry of a trade truce between the US and China that the two leaders agreed in Korea last October. Investors will be keen to hear about any form of tariff reduction or extension of the trade truce, albeit a grand bargain seems unlikely. Aside from AI and trade the leaders will discuss their rivalry rare earths, while talks are bound to also focus on the Iran conflict. Ahead of the meeting, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York for bilateral talks on Sunday.

Can the UN General Assembly deliver a path to peace for the Iran conflict?

The UN General Assembly begins its 81st annual general debate in New York on Tuesday. The focus will be on AI, US-China relations, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, plus trade and climate change. Ahead of this on Monday, G7 foreign ministers meet on the sidelines of the event.

How will AfD perform in German state elections?

How is the AfD performing? Germany holds state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, two weeks after the right-wing AfD won 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt. The performance of the party will be a signal for markets about European fragmentation risks and read across to the upcoming French presidential election next year.

What does Novo Nordisk plan to turn shares around?

Novo Nordisk holds a Capital Markets Day in London on Monday at key moment for the maker of anti-obesity drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. Investors will be particularly interested in its recently-announced strategic collaboration with Anthropic to leverage Claude Science to accelerate research. Shares have taken a battering this year - investors will want to know how the company plans to turn things around.

How strong is the inflation impulse in the latest PMI data?

Wednesday sees the release of the monthly S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, offering investors a snapshot of the health of the global economy and a view of inflationary pressures stemming from the energy price spike. The latest official data point to inflation cooling slightly in June and July from the peak in May, however there are signs this could rise again after the re-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. 

What are central bankers saying about hiking cycles?

Central banks are in action with rate decisions from Norway, Sweden, Mexico and Switzerland due Thursday. There are also a lot of central bank speakers that day with New York Fed President John Williams, BOE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and rate-setter Swati Dhingra speaking at the London Macro Policy Forum. Regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Anna Paulson of Philadelphia and Tom Barkin of Richmond speak at separate events that day. And BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the Sixth Biennial Conference on macroeconomic policy in Warsaw. Then on Friday New York Fed President John Williams and BOE Governor Andrew Bailey are part of a policy panel during the Monetary Economics conference at Oxford. The main question for markets is the extent which the Fed has kicked off a hiking cycle that delivers more rate increases, and how close is the Bank of England to pulling the trigger in November.