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Divergences continue to build - which way for the volatility breakout?
Summary: Today we look through the divergences that continue to characterize the action across US equities, with some of the most speculative areas - especially Tesla - on fire on Friday even as the median stock had a rather weak day. As volatility continues to crush lower, this could mean we are headed for a volatility breakout, but in what direction? Also, a look at geopolitical developments, including in rare earths, some must reads and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy.
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Today’s Links
The Agonies of a short seller. Ran across this hilarious X post on the pitfalls of trading in this day and age as a short-seller. A hilarious rejoinder from another market pro Kuppy bemoaning similar. Dark humor at its best. Russell Napier Q&A on FTAlphaville - some of the best stuff here related to the unsustainability of France’s debt and the policy mix that awaits should pressure ever be brought to bear on French sovereign bonds. But even more so - there are some investment ideas that one can infer directly from this article due to the new geopolitical reality: what sectors and companies can become growth companies when Chinese competition is disrupted with tariffs? Velina Tchakarova is a good follow on X, and passed along this post on the unbelievable generosity of French pensions - it pays more to be old in France than anywhere else, more than being in the work force, it seems. The chart she passes along, for you FT subscribers is from this excellent article, with another one describing how France got into its untenable debt situation. A stub summary of Tesla-booster Dan Ives note on Tesla and why it may become a USD 2 Trillion company in the next 12-18 months (that puts its share price near 600 - but the target is 500? Weird math. I will not participate…. FT article pointing out that rare earths can be processed from existing piles of mine waste - with plenty of geopolitical incentives now afoot to mobilize investment in these “new” sources of supply. One man’s trash is another one’s treasure indeed. Tesla is on the rise again, seemingly on a new hype cycle linked to hopes for their autonomous driving efforts and the “physical AI” future of Optimus robots. Is this upside melt-up a sign that speculative energies are set to boost the broader market or merely a distracting sideshow? It’s hard to be tactically bearish on the market until/unless moves like this rapidly reverse. In pre-market, it is up over 4% more, probably on the Dan Ives note discussed above.Chart of the Day - Tesla (TSLA)
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