U.S. jobless claims : A nightmare scenario is unfolding
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: The most important U.S. data this week is out...and it's very ugly.
The U.S. jobless claims are out in the high range estimate at 3283K.
The BLS indicated that nearly every single state cited the COVID-19 outbreak in its reporting. The impact is very broad and massive. All the sectors were hit hard: service industries, but also health care, arts, transport and warehousing and also manufacturing.
As mentioned in my note this morning, keep in mind that an undefined number of claims went unreported as states’ unemployment insurance program offices were overwhelmed by the massive number of applications both by phone and online. Some states even informed that their phone lines was saturated and their website crashed due to high demand. It means that next week’s data might be very ugly as well, or even worse.
Let’s take a look at the situation in America’s four largest state economies that represent roughly 1/3 of US GDP:
Total jobless claims in these states are at 496K! The statistics from California is particularly ugly due to early and strict containment measures.
If we make the assumption that net job losses reach 5M this month, which may be very optimistic, the unemployment rate could jump from 3.5% in February to almost 7% in March. Such a monthly increase would be unprecedented in modern history.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)