Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank
Summary: Saxo Bank's Quarterly Outlook for Q4 2018 is now live.
Discover expert insights and emerging trading themes in the #SaxoStrats’ Q4 2018 Outlook
Our expert strategists have come together to offer you unrivaled analysis, getting to the heart of economic forecasts, policy horizons, asset prices and more. This publication focuses on the perfect storm of Federal Reserve tightening, a fearsomely strong dollar, and an escalating trade war between the US and China that has hit emerging market assets.
As we head into Q4'18, the world has reached a critical crossroads on multiple fronts. From globalisation to geopolitics, as well as economics, we face a collective choice between escalation and turning from the brink.
Where do we go from here?
Click here to download your copy.
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
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