Market Quick Take - Tech rebounds as oil cools - 21 July 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe slipped on geopolitical and rate concerns, while Asian technology shares staged a sharp rebound.
• Volatility: VIX held above 18 as front-end calm returned, while oil vol stayed roughly three times equity vol
• Digital Assets: Miners and crypto equities snapped back hard, Strategy paused its bitcoin buying
• Commodities: Oil eased from one-month highs as mediation talk built, gold pushed back above 4,000
• Fixed Income: A gilt-led selloff dragged Treasury yields higher, with the 10-year steady overnight at 4.59%
• Currencies: Dollar little changed, the New Zealand dollar firm on hot inflation, the loonie steady into fresh US tariffs
• Macro: German and euro area July ZEW, UK labour market and public finances

Macro

• US strikes on Iran entered a tenth day as Tehran continued to retaliate and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumped following attacks on shipping. President Trump warned that Iran would be held responsible for the deaths of three US service members. Iran-backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia, putting Red Sea energy flows at risk, while mediators floated de-escalation plans including a possible ten-day halt to strikes. Iran confirmed it was in contact with mediators, and that report was enough to take some heat out of crude overnight.
• New Zealand's annual inflation rose to 4.1% in the second quarter from 3.1% in the first, above forecasts and well outside the RBNZ's 1 to 3% target band. Transport was the main driver as fuel prices surged, followed by housing and utilities. On the quarter, CPI climbed 1.5%, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2023.
• Canada moved the other way. Headline inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, just under the 2.9% consensus, on slower gasoline and softer food prices. The Bank of Canada's core measures, median at 1.9% and trimmed-mean at 1.8%, fell to their lowest in more than five years. On the month CPI declined 0.4%, led by a 10.2% drop in gasoline. Separately, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods including milk, beer, plywood and hockey equipment, citing discriminatory treatment of US products. Energy, potash and critical minerals are exempt. Prime Minister Carney said the move violates the USMCA and that Canada is ready to intensify talks.
• In the UK, new Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he would use any flexibility available in the fiscal rules, a comment that unnerved gilt investors and triggered a sovereign bond selloff that spread to Treasuries and JGBs. He then named former Defence Secretary John Healey as Chancellor of the Exchequer, an appointment reported as a surprise and one the gilt market had not positioned for.
• Euro area construction output rose 1.2% year-on-year in May, a seven-month high, driven by a 2.9% jump in specialised construction. Civil engineering growth eased to 3.5% while building construction fell 6.6%. Austria, Germany and Poland led the gains. On the month, output rose 0.4%.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0800 – UK June labour market report and public sector net borrowing
1000 – Euro area ECB Bank Lending Survey
1100 – Germany and euro area July ZEW Economic Sentiment
1830 – Bundesbank President Nagel speech
2230 – US API weekly crude oil stock change

Earnings events

• Tuesday: General Motors, 3M, Charles Schwab, Alaska Air Group, Hasbro, Haliburton, ...
• Wednesday: Tesla, Alphabet, GE Vernova, Texas Instruments, ServiceNow, CME Group, ...
• Thursday: Intel, Rtx Corp, T-Mobile US, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Nasdaq Inc, Verisign, Dow, Blackstone, ...
• Friday: Exxon Mobil, American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon, ...

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, the Dow dropped 0.6% and the Nasdaq was nearly flat as Middle East tensions and an earnings-heavy week kept investors cautious. Chip shares steadied after last week’s sharp sell-off, but the rebound narrowed through the session. Alphabet gained 1.5% on a report that Google was developing a new AI-efficiency server chip, while Global Payments jumped 5.8% after a Morgan Stanley upgrade. Domino’s Pizza added 2.1% after revenue beat expectations, while Apple fell 2.1% as investors reduced exposure to major technology names ahead of results from Alphabet, Tesla and Intel.
• Europe: The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.3% and the FTSE 100 lost 0.7% as renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil above $90 and rising UK gilt yields hurt risk appetite. Ryanair dropped 4.6% after first-quarter profit fell 34% on higher fuel costs and lower fares, pulling IAG down 1.4% as investors reassessed airline margins. Computacenter rose 5.6% after Berenberg upgraded the IT services group, while Thule fell 3.6% after sales missed expectations and management warned of price increases. Markets now turn to the European Central Bank decision and further signals from the new UK government.
• Asia: Asian equities rebounded sharply as lower oil prices and hopes for Middle East mediation encouraged bargain hunting after last week’s AI-led sell-off. Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.8%, South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.7% and Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 3.6%, while Hong Kong was little changed. Samsung Electronics jumped 7.4% and SK Hynix rose 6.4% as investors returned to beaten-down memory-chip names, while TSMC gained 2.8% and SoftBank added 6.1% on renewed demand for AI exposure. The rebound was strong, but upcoming results from Alphabet and Intel remain the next test for the crowded technology trade.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 18.65 | VIX FUTURES: 18.80 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (146.05) | MARKET REGIME: NEUTRAL / CHOP | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• A chip rebound and softer oil steadied risk appetite, but VIX held above the 18 line at 18.65, keeping the regime read at neutral chop. The calm was at the front: VIX1D fell 19.5% to 13.43, while VIX9D rose 5.5% to 17.78 and VVIX eased to 102.82.
• Term structure held contango, VIX3M 20.40 against front-month futures 18.80. The stretch is in oil: OVX at 62.07 is 3.3 times VIX. SPXW prices a 96.8 point expected move into Friday's expiry, 1.30%. VXN held 28.53, SKEW elevated 146.05, MOVE firmer 72.66. Tesla and Alphabet report Wednesday.
• For a more detailed view on volatility, check our Options Briefs in the Options Insights

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~65,473 +0.4% | ETHEREUM ~1,925 +1.1% | IBIT 36.89 +1.49% | ETHA 14.33 +3.02% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Crypto equities snapped back hard on Monday, well ahead of spot. Miners led the move, Iren up 19.6%, Cifr 17.0%, Cleanspark 10.7% and Marathon 9.2%, with Circle 8.3% higher and Coinbase 2.1%. It reverses most of last week's tech-driven washout, and the ether ETF outpaced the bitcoin ETF.
• On the structural side, Strategy bought no bitcoin in the week to 19 July and instead added 225 million dollars to its cash reserves, taking them to 3.2 billion. The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve blueprint is due before 22 July.

Commodities

• WTI settled near USD 83 a barrel on Monday, its highest close since mid-June, after swinging through a five-dollar range. Brent briefly topped USD 90 before paring back below USD 89. The move came from the Houthi maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, a tenth consecutive day of US strikes on Iran and a tanker strike in the Strait of Hormuz. Crude gave some of that back overnight, with Brent easing 0.7% to around USD 88.55 as reports of a possible ten-day pause in strikes circulated.
• Gold has pushed back above the USD 4,000 level it spent Monday testing from below, trading around USD 4,046 in Asian hours after ending Monday down 0.2%. Bullion is holding that line despite a firmer dollar and higher yields, as traders weigh Middle East inflation risk against mediation headlines. ETF holdings continue to leak, with outflows of 110,310 troy ounces in the last session and total holdings down 2.7% so far this year.
• Comex silver settled 1.36% higher at USD 56.80 an ounce on Monday, its largest single-day gain since 14 July and a second consecutive advance, and extended those gains overnight. The recovery is off a low base: silver remains down roughly 19% year-to-date and about 50% below the 52-week high of USD 115.08 set in January. Copper also firmed, adding 1.2%.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields rose 4 to 5 basis points on Monday, with the 10-year climbing to 4.59% and the 30-year reaching 5.11%. In our view the move appears imported rather than domestic: spillover from the gilt market after the new UK Prime Minister's fiscal comments, compounded by escalatory rhetoric on Iran. The 1-year yield rose 2.3 basis points to 4.03%. Yields were steady overnight, with the 10-year unchanged at 4.59%.
• UK gilt yields rose 5 to 9 basis points after Andy Burnham said on his first day in office that he would seek any flexibility available in the government's fiscal rules, reviving concerns about the borrowing path. Long-dated gilt yields reached their highest levels since late May. The pressure travelled east, with the Japanese 10-year yield up 2 basis points to 2.725% and a 40-year JGB auction due this week.
• The US Treasury sold USD 92 billion of 3-month bills at 3.73% and USD 79 billion of 6-month bills at 3.835% on Monday, both stopping through the when-issued bid. Indirect bidder participation was solid, which suggests flight-to-quality demand remains intact at the short end even with policy uncertainty unresolved.

Currencies

• The dollar was little changed overall on Monday and again overnight, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index flat in both sessions. Higher US yields and Middle East risk lent support, but neither was enough to produce a directional move, and the euro has been pinned near 1.1415 for two sessions.
• Under that flat surface the moves were in the commodity and antipodean bloc. The Australian dollar was the standout on Monday, rising 0.45% to 0.6998 on oil and commodity-linked demand. The New Zealand dollar advanced again overnight after the hotter second-quarter inflation print firmed expectations for further RBNZ tightening, having closed Monday at 0.5838. The Canadian dollar was the worst G10 performer on Monday, weakening 0.38% despite higher oil prices, then held steady overnight even after the US vowed a fresh 50% tariff on selected Canadian goods.
• Sterling closed at 1.3431 under pressure from the gilt selloff and the wider UK to US yield spread, and held those declines after the Chancellor appointment. The yen stayed weak around 162.47 per dollar, with elevated oil import costs continuing to weigh on Japan's terms of trade.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis