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CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
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CFDs and forex (FX) are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX, or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Losses can exceed deposits on some products.
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Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year

Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year

Macro
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  Just coming back from Russia. This is my latest macro presentation for Q4 2019 focusing on USD liquidity, leading indicators based on credit and Russia outlook (RUB & macro).

My main takeaways:

  • It’s going to get worse in the short term due to dollar shortage, low China’s stimulus that is not kicking in well in demand and export industries and technical recession in many countries (notably Germany).
  • But there are positive signs for early 2020: CB liquidity is slowly turning on the back of global easing and our favorite macro gauge the credit impulse points out to a potential growth rebound in H1 2020, mostly fueled by the US.
  • Russia outlook: Macro is looking just fine in Russia. The country has low financing needs relative to other Ems and can accommodate both on the monetary & fiscal side. But beware of risk of higher USDRUB cross due to USD shortage in the short term.

Slides - The Make-or-Break Year

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

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    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

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    John J. Hardy

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    Global Head of Investment Strategy

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    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

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    Chief Investment Strategist

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    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

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  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

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  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

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  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

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    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

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