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Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year

Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year

Macro
CD
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  Just coming back from Russia. This is my latest macro presentation for Q4 2019 focusing on USD liquidity, leading indicators based on credit and Russia outlook (RUB & macro).

My main takeaways:

  • It’s going to get worse in the short term due to dollar shortage, low China’s stimulus that is not kicking in well in demand and export industries and technical recession in many countries (notably Germany).
  • But there are positive signs for early 2020: CB liquidity is slowly turning on the back of global easing and our favorite macro gauge the credit impulse points out to a potential growth rebound in H1 2020, mostly fueled by the US.
  • Russia outlook: Macro is looking just fine in Russia. The country has low financing needs relative to other Ems and can accommodate both on the monetary & fiscal side. But beware of risk of higher USDRUB cross due to USD shortage in the short term.

Slides - The Make-or-Break Year

30_CDK_2

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 1

    Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

    The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 2

    French President Macron resigns

    The political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 3

    Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

    As markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 4

    EU Army forces EU down path to full union

    With continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 5

    A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030

    In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 6

    UK holds UnBrexit referendum

    Following a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 7

    Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflation

    History tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 8

    OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

    Sanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 9

    USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

    Following the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
    Read article
  • OP drawing - 352x202 Mobile number 10

    Tax haven ban kills private equity

    With the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
    Read article

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