Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year
Summary: Just coming back from Russia. This is my latest macro presentation for Q4 2019 focusing on USD liquidity, leading indicators based on credit and Russia outlook (RUB & macro).
My main takeaways:
- It’s going to get worse in the short term due to dollar shortage, low China’s stimulus that is not kicking in well in demand and export industries and technical recession in many countries (notably Germany).
- But there are positive signs for early 2020: CB liquidity is slowly turning on the back of global easing and our favorite macro gauge the credit impulse points out to a potential growth rebound in H1 2020, mostly fueled by the US.
- Russia outlook: Macro is looking just fine in Russia. The country has low financing needs relative to other Ems and can accommodate both on the monetary & fiscal side. But beware of risk of higher USDRUB cross due to USD shortage in the short term.