Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: Just coming back from Russia. This is my latest macro presentation for Q4 2019 focusing on USD liquidity, leading indicators based on credit and Russia outlook (RUB & macro).
My main takeaways:
- It’s going to get worse in the short term due to dollar shortage, low China’s stimulus that is not kicking in well in demand and export industries and technical recession in many countries (notably Germany).
- But there are positive signs for early 2020: CB liquidity is slowly turning on the back of global easing and our favorite macro gauge the credit impulse points out to a potential growth rebound in H1 2020, mostly fueled by the US.
- Russia outlook: Macro is looking just fine in Russia. The country has low financing needs relative to other Ems and can accommodate both on the monetary & fiscal side. But beware of risk of higher USDRUB cross due to USD shortage in the short term.
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Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?
John J. Hardy
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Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
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Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
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Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
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