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Macro Macro Macro

Macro View: The Make-or-Break Year

Macro
CD
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  Just coming back from Russia. This is my latest macro presentation for Q4 2019 focusing on USD liquidity, leading indicators based on credit and Russia outlook (RUB & macro).

My main takeaways:

  • It’s going to get worse in the short term due to dollar shortage, low China’s stimulus that is not kicking in well in demand and export industries and technical recession in many countries (notably Germany).
  • But there are positive signs for early 2020: CB liquidity is slowly turning on the back of global easing and our favorite macro gauge the credit impulse points out to a potential growth rebound in H1 2020, mostly fueled by the US.
  • Russia outlook: Macro is looking just fine in Russia. The country has low financing needs relative to other Ems and can accommodate both on the monetary & fiscal side. But beware of risk of higher USDRUB cross due to USD shortage in the short term.

Slides - The Make-or-Break Year

30_CDK_2

Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived

  • The End Game has arrived

    Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
    Read article

  • Productivity and innovation have never been more important

    As the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
    Read article

  • The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading it

    If the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
    Read article

  • Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctions

    With supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
    Read article

  • Between a rock and a hard place

    Geopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
    Read article

  • The Great Erosion

    Inflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
    Read article

  • Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recession

    While global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
    Read article

  • Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with reality

    With the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
    Read article

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