Macro Flash : A very strong U.S. employment report in February
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: In line with the latest ADP report released past Wednesday and the improvement in the employment component of the ISM report (out at 55.6 in February), the NFP report confirms the U.S. labor market is very strong.
The U.S. February Employment Report is all-round strong: employment increased by 273k vs 175k expected and the 3-month moving average is out at 243k, which is the highest level since September 2016. In addition, average hourly earnings are at 0.3% on a monthly basis, in line with consensus, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%. One of the most important parts of the report was about job growth evolution in cyclical industry. After prolonged months of slowdown or even job destruction (in the manufacturing sector), we start to see a job growth improvement in cyclical industry, notably the construction sector (+3% YoY in February). Without much surprise, there is no indication at this stage that the coronavirus outbreak has had an impact on the labor market. The potential consequences of COVID-19 on the U.S. labor market will mostly dependent on the amplitude of the demand shock on the U.S. economy, and especially the service sector. The March report will probably provide more insights on that issue.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)