Some temporary relief but not enough for anyone to hang their hats on properly as the situation remains way too unpredictable. Trump has opened a two-week window for a diplomatic solution to the conflict between Israel and Iran – a move that has diminished some of the geopolitical risk premia affecting global markets heading into the weekend. Oil retreated along with gold and stocks rose a touch early on Friday as hopes for some kind of de-escalation permeated markets. Let’s be clear though – stocks hadn’t moved all that much in the first place given we’re talking about an extreme tail risk of WW3 erupting that has a more-than-zero probability.

The FTSE 100 rose about 0.3% early doors while the gains in Frankfurt and Paris were a bit more – reflective of the declines yesterday. The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.8%, led by weakness in banks and consumer stocks. Germany’s DAX lost 1.1%, closing at its lowest since early May. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% to 8,791, retreating for the second time in three sessions as the Bank of England kept rates steady.

Wall Street was closed yesterday and futures are still down but off the lows from yesterday when markets were rumbling about a potential strike by the US. We have seen the dollar come back a bit – worth noting that BofA fund manager survey showed FMS investors are the most underweight the US dollar in 20 years.

In the YOOKAY retail sales are meant to be down a lot but who can believe the ONS these days? Meanwhile government borrowing soared to its second-highest ever in May. That I can believe. Why does this matter? Firstly it impacts gilts, second it adds to the argument that taxes will rise in the autumn – for investors in particular there could be changes that impact your decision-making.

Check Tesla – robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas is slated for Sunday. This is meant to be a big deal for the company – let’s see what Dan Ives has to say...and let’s see if they even launch it this weekend. Important that it could lead to some volatility in the stock on Monday.