Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Daily Cross-Asset Global Views
2020-Jan-15
Macro Dragon: Window Dressing Deal Signing Day
Before we get into it, for those that are back – or on the way back in – from what was hopefully a restful year-end holiday break, Happy New Years!
Let me sincerely (hand on liver) wish you, your families & teams the best of 2020. May your health, vigor & experiences be excellent & full of fun + laughter. May you continue to grow & develop yourself. May you be awash in gratitude & contribution plus fall [tail] backward into more money than Bezos.
We’ll be shaking things up from KVP’s side, so expect a lot more trade views going forward, as well as 20 long-term trades views for 2020 – which KVP will do a special piece & mini-series on.
Ok let’s get after it…
May sound like a quip, but generally that exactly what most things are on a day to day –noise.
Hence in a lot of KVP’s discussion with clients & peers, it almost always leads to him pointing out, that if you really want edge you need to get farther from today on your trade/investment horizon… paradox is of course, everyone’s mandate is moving ever closer to mark to market on a micro second to micro second horizon.
End of the day, do you want to fish in crowded waters or uncrowded waters. May seem straight forward, yet guess where most of the capital allocation is on the HF/prop side? That’s right crowded waters.
Sometimes to play the game you want to play, you have to play a sub-game. Think of it as an entrance or proof to the universe that you are deserving to play the game you want to play. Other times you just have to break the rules, have so much faith & self-believe that it hurts & just pave your own pioneering way.
So the rhetoric is that stocks were off in the US o/n due to the fact that the next round of tariff reviews from the US on China are going to be post the US election – i.e. 10months for the micro second ground is like 10 light years (not quite mathematically but you get the gram).
So looks like risk-off star to the Asia morning.
Macro Dragaon is not picking up, what the rhetoric is putting down – its worth noting JPM & Citi crushed it erns wise overnight. We should be getting erns reports from BoA, GS & MS within the next 24-48hrs.
We already touched on thoughts around Phase One signing on a special Sat piece - caveat is have a tactical contingency playbook when (not if) we get a deal break later in the year.
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Good luck out there today & for the rest of the wk ahead
Wishing everyone a great, profitable start to the year. Best of luck in 2020, may it be your most magnificent yet
Namaste,
-KVP
**
(Times would be SGT)
AI: The good, the bad, and the bubble
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Steen Jakobsen,
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The emergence of advanced AI systems is by far the most surprising event this year, turning everything upside down, while risks and benefits are debated. AI will also become an arms race between the US and China.
Peter Garnry,
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As China navigates global fragmentation, its cycle of technology application, productivity enhancement, and growth is threatened by US breakthroughs in generative AI, limited computing power, and geopolitical tensions.
Redmond Wong,
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Japan’s expertise in semiconductors and robotic integration could be the foundation of AI dominance. Combining two of this year's themes, Japanese equities and artificial intelligence, brings a wave of opportunities.
Charu Chanana,
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The AI fever has turned the technology into a darling, pushing crypto further into no-man’s-land. There are striking similarities between AI and crypto, and if these are to come full circle, AI won't be spared for bubbles.
Mads Eberhardt,
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Stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI) have appeared on investors' radars. Expectations are high, but it may be necessary to consider how to get exposure to AI in a diversified way.
Hans Oudshoorn,
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Ole S. Hansen,
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As inflation remains high central banks face hard decisions about whether they should keep hiking interest rates or stop. Meanwhile, the rise of AI creates bubble-like conditions that only make the decision harder.
Althea Spinozzi,
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