Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Macro Brief: Let’s talk about…Brexit!
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: US consumer sentiment picked up at the end of last week but over in the UK, everybody is still bogged down in the Brexit quagmire.
Last week ended up on a good data for the United States as University of Michigan consumer confidence recovered in March, mostly due to rising expectations. This was a positive signal after a bunch of disappointing data in the US since January, especially retail sales.
There isn't much to focus in the economic calendar today. The trade balance for the euro area is due early on but it should have little influence on the market.
This week, we will talk about Brexit again. Three days ago, I had a nice talk with a Maltese diplomat working in Brussels confirming that an extension of article 50 is not a done deal. Apparently, a short technical extension could be granted by the EU-27 on the condition that Theresa May’s deal would pass this week.
If it is rejected for the third time, which is likely, the British PM will need to come up with a clear strategy to convince her counterparts: either a general election, a new referendum or a new deal such as the Norway model. It seems that EU officials are sick of attempts from the British to win concessions on the backstop and are reluctant to grant an extension period that would go beyond the EU parliamentary elections.
So far, the market has not paid much attention to what is happening in the UK, but the situation could get nasty if the likelihood of a no-deal reemerges. It is not my baseline scenario but frankly speaking, it is extremely complicated to know what can really happen with the Brexit process.
This week, we will talk about Brexit again. Three days ago, I had a nice talk with a Maltese diplomat working in Brussels confirming that an extension of article 50 is not a done deal. Apparently, a short technical extension could be granted by the EU-27 on the condition that Theresa May’s deal would pass this week.
If it is rejected for the third time, which is likely, the British PM will need to come up with a clear strategy to convince her counterparts: either a general election, a new referendum or a new deal such as the Norway model. It seems that EU officials are sick of attempts from the British to win concessions on the backstop and are reluctant to grant an extension period that would go beyond the EU parliamentary elections.
So far, the market has not paid much attention to what is happening in the UK, but the situation could get nasty if the likelihood of a no-deal reemerges. It is not my baseline scenario but frankly speaking, it is extremely complicated to know what can really happen with the Brexit process.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy