Login Open account
United Kingdom
Back
Manage Consent
Details Cookies
United Kingdom
Important margin product information

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Necessary
Show more
Show more
Show more
Show more
International Australia 中国大陆 België Belgique Česká republika Danmark France Hong Kong S.A.R 中國香港 Italia UAE الشرق الأوسط Nederland Norge Polska По-русски Singapore Slovenská republika Switzerland Suisse Schweiz 日本
Accept all Necessary only Manage consent Save and close Accept all
United Kingdom
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Losses can exceed deposits on some products.
Show less
Macro Brief: Let’s talk about…Brexit! Macro Brief: Let’s talk about…Brexit! Macro Brief: Let’s talk about…Brexit!

Macro Brief: Let’s talk about…Brexit!

Macro 4 minutes to read
CD
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary:  US consumer sentiment picked up at the end of last week but over in the UK, everybody is still bogged down in the Brexit quagmire.

Last week ended up on a good data for the United States as University of Michigan consumer confidence recovered in March, mostly due to rising expectations. This was a positive signal after a bunch of disappointing data in the US since January, especially retail sales. 
There isn't much to focus in the economic calendar today. The trade balance for the euro area is due early on but it should have little influence on the market.

This week, we will talk about Brexit again. Three days ago, I had a nice talk with a Maltese diplomat working in Brussels confirming that an extension of article 50 is not a done deal. Apparently, a short technical extension could be granted by the EU-27 on the condition that Theresa May’s deal would pass this week.

If it is rejected for the third time, which is likely, the British PM will need to come up with a clear strategy to convince her counterparts: either a general election, a new referendum or a new deal such as the Norway model. It seems that EU officials are sick of attempts from the British to win concessions on the backstop and are reluctant to grant an extension period that would go beyond the EU parliamentary elections. 

So far, the market has not paid much attention to what is happening in the UK, but the situation could get nasty if the likelihood of a no-deal reemerges. It is not my baseline scenario but frankly speaking, it is extremely complicated to know what can really happen with the Brexit process. 

Quarterly Outlook Q1 2023: The models are broken

  • The models are broken

    The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.

    Steen Jakobsen,
    Chief Investment Officer

    Read article

  • Refitting China’s broken growth engine

    A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.

    Redmond Wong,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Broken Europe

    While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.

    Chris Dembik,
    Head of Macroeconomic Research

    Read article

  • A painful phase transition

    As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.

    Peter Garnry,
    Head of Equity Strategy

    Read article

  • Opportunities in a deglobalising world

    New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.

    Charu Chanana,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Is the ‘balanced’ 60/40 equity/bond portfolio a thing of the past?

    For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.

    Peter Siks,
    Investment Coach

    Read article

  • China reopening will drive another strong year for commodities

    Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.

    Ole S. Hansen,
    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Read article

  • Latecomers to tightening party, EUR and JPY, may prove safest harbours in the first half

    2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.

    John J. Hardy,
    Head of FX Strategy

    Read article

  • China reopening a boon to Australian assets?

    The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.

    Jessica Amir,
    Market Strategist

    Read article

  • Can institutions save crypto before retail vanishes?

    From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.

    Mads Eberhardt,
    Cryptocurrency Analyst

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Support Centre
For existing clients, please click here to request support via the Support Centre.

Have a question about our products, platforms or services? Visit the Support Centre to find answers for our most frequently asked questions. If you are still unable to locate an answer to your question, you will also find contact details for your local Saxo office to speak with a representative.

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, or any of our other products work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The value of your investments can go down as well as up. Losses can exceed deposits on some margin products. Professional clients can lose more than they deposit. All trading carries risk.

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.