Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: The GBP is back under 1.20 USD, the lowest level since January 2017 due to a sharp increase in political risk and a lot of confusion regarding what will happen at the political level by the end of the day.
The market situation this morning: the GBP is back under 1.20 USD, the lowest level since January 2017 due to a sharp increase in political risk and a lot of confusion regarding what will happen at the political level by the end of day.
What we know:
We identify three outcomes for today’s vote:
On a final note, it is highly certain that today’s vote will not bring much clarity regarding Brexit process. At best, depending on the scenario that prevails, we can see some short-term relief for the GBP, but the currency is doomed to depreciate further in the long run as the political saga continues.
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