Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Must reads from the past week: Rate policy, Earnings, Strength in commodities
Saxo
The US CPI that came in hotter than expected for the third consecutive month. In contrast to that, the ECB indicated a June rate cut as a possibility, therefore considerably widening the FED – ECB policy divergence. First quarter earnings season got underway with reports from some of the major US banks. Finally, metals continued to move higher while contending with USD dollar strength.
Must reads…
Why current circumstances show the Dollar remains the ultimate haven
- Riding the FED-ECB policy divergence
Strong performance points to a meaningful earnings growth for top banks
- Financials are attractive
Be aware of some of the big themes to watch for over the next few weeks
-Podcast talk on earnings season
Supportive conditions add momentum to strength in commodities
- Gold and Silver surge
The week ahead…
Geopolitical risks are back on the radar with Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel. Commodity markets will be on edge with signs of worsening geopolitics and delay of Fed rate cut expectations after the inflation shock of last week.
The key events in equities, outside macro and geopolitics, are Q1 earnings with more than 70 companies reporting and key focus on ASML (Wed), Netflix (Thu), and Procter & Gamble (Fri).
Insights for monetary policy will follow a series of policymaker speeches in the U.S. and Europe, alongside key economic indicators such as US retail sales, UK average hourly earnings, and UK CPI figures.
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