Key points:
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Equities: Strong gains again today in Hang Seng futures rallying 1.7% pulling European equity futures 0.7% higher ahead of the market open. Tesco is in focus this morning increasing its profit forecast for the fiscal year in addition to launching a £1bn shares buyback programme over the next 12 months. TSMC, the world’s largest chip manufacturer, is also in focus today announcing revenue growth in Q1 of 34% YoY reflecting the boom in AI chips. Later today the equity market will tune into this week’s main event which is the US March CPI report which could further upend bets on interest rate cuts if we get another surprise.
FX: The dollar holds onto a small weekly loss ahead of today’s US CPI report with gains being led by the Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies, not least NZD which trades up more than 1%. Besides the US inflation report, traders will also be focusing on central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada today and the ECB on Thursday, both of which may show a dovish tilt.
Commodities: Gold holds near record highs ahead of today’s US inflation data, with traders wondering whether some relative value can be found in silver and platinum, two metals that have trailed in recent years while central banks bought gold. Watch the gold-silver ratio which is approaching key trendline support in 82.50 area. Brent trades back below $90, led by selling pressure in diesel and gasoline while the Geo risk premium continues to ebb and flow. Ahead of today’s EIA stock report the API said crude stocks expanded by 3m bbl last week. Also, in focus monthly oil market reports from OPEC Thursday and the IEA on Friday.
Fixed income: Yesterday, the US yield curve bull-flattened, with 2-year yields falling by 5.2 bps to 4.73% and 10-year yields decreasing by 6.2 bps to 4.35%. This movement was due to investors unwinding their short positions on US Treasuries in anticipation of a soft CPI report today. A short squeeze has the potential to push 10-year yields down to test resistance at 4.2%. Yet, breakeven rates remain in an uptrend while commodity prices are surging, making us believe that a rally in the long end might be short-lived. For US Treasury yields key levels amid today’s CPI report, click here. Weak 3-year auction served as a reminder of the Treasury’s challenges in maintaining pandemic-era demand levels for coupon auctions. Indirect demand was below 2023 averages, while the auction's high yield tailed by 2 bps, the highest since February 2023. After today’s CPI and PPI report, markets’ attention pivots to the ECB meeting on Thursday. A note of caution from Lagarde could imply that the ECB's decisions remain closely tied to the Fed's policy moves, as a weakened Euro could inadvertently fuel another inflation surge (See full report here). Within this environment, we maintain a cautious stance and continue to favor bonds with a maturity of up to five years, while avoiding ultra-long issuances.
Macro: Fitch changed its outlook for China to negative from stable, citing increasing risks to its public finances as the country contends with more uncertainty in its shift to new growth models. The country’s A+ rating was affirmed. Bostic, a voting member of the FOMC reiterated his expectation for one Fed rate cut in 2024 but said he was open to changing his view.
Technical analysis highlights: S&P500 correction unfolding, key support at 5,057. Nasdaq 100 Correction unfolding, needs to close below 17,808 for confirmation. DAX top and reversal, correction likely to 17,900. Hand Seng testing resistance at 17,135
EURUSD likely resuming downtrend, above 1.0885 uptrend GBPUSD spiked above 1.27 but still likely to resume downtrend support at 1.25, uptrend above 1.2685. USDJPY range bound 151.95 – 150.85. EURJPY likely to test 165.35, a break above push to 166.40. AUDJPY uptrend with potential to 101.80. Gold uptrend quite stretched it is intact, could reach 2,400 be aware of potential correction. Silver resistance at 28.75 and 30. Copper hovering around 430 but expect correction. Brent Crude oil uptrend, resist at 93.05, support at 82.56. US 10-year T-yield uptrend likely to test 4.50 resistance
In the news: Fed's Bostic still expects 1 rate cut in 2024 but doesn’t rule out 0 or 2 (Yahoo), Big investors buy European bonds over US Treasuries as economies diverge (FT), Rheinmetall leads slump after European defence sector's record run (Reuters)
Macro events (all times are GMT): US March CPI, exp. 3.4% YoY from 3.2% prior, Core YoY 3.7% from 3.8% prior (1230), Bank of Canada rate decision (1345), EIA’s Crude and Fuel Stock report (1430), US FOMC Minutes (1800)
Earnings events: Today’s key earnings focus is Delta Air Lines reporting Q1 earnings before the market opens. Analysts expect revenue growth of –2% YoY and EPS of $0.36 compared to $-0.77 a year ago.
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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