Platform GL EU 1406x160 v2 Platform GL EU 1406x160 v2 Platform GL EU 1406x160 v2

Global Market Quick Take: Europe – 10 April 2024

Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Be Invested
Saxo Strategy Team

Key points:

  • Equities: Chinese equities continue to rebound. Tesco increases profit guidance and launch £1bn buyback.
  • FX: The dollar trades soft ahead of CPI and Bank of Canada rate decision
  • Commodities: Record-breaking gold highlights silver and platinum’s potential
  • Fixed Income: Short covering drives yields lower in anticipation of a soft CPI report
  • Economic data: US CPI and rate decision from Bank of Canada

The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.

Equities: Strong gains again today in Hang Seng futures rallying 1.7% pulling European equity futures 0.7% higher ahead of the market open. Tesco is in focus this morning increasing its profit forecast for the fiscal year in addition to launching a £1bn shares buyback programme over the next 12 months. TSMC, the world’s largest chip manufacturer, is also in focus today announcing revenue growth in Q1 of 34% YoY reflecting the boom in AI chips. Later today the equity market will tune into this week’s main event which is the US March CPI report which could further upend bets on interest rate cuts if we get another surprise.

FX: The dollar holds onto a small weekly loss ahead of today’s US CPI report with gains being led by the Scandinavian and Antipodean currencies, not least NZD which trades up more than 1%. Besides the US inflation report, traders will also be focusing on central bank decisions from the Bank of Canada today and the ECB on Thursday, both of which may show a dovish tilt.

Commodities: Gold holds near record highs ahead of today’s US inflation data, with traders wondering whether some relative value can be found in silver and platinum, two metals that have trailed in recent years while central banks bought gold. Watch the gold-silver ratio which is approaching key trendline support in 82.50 area. Brent trades back below $90, led by selling pressure in diesel and gasoline while the Geo risk premium continues to ebb and flow. Ahead of today’s EIA stock report the API said crude stocks expanded by 3m bbl last week. Also, in focus monthly oil market reports from OPEC Thursday and the IEA on Friday.

Fixed income: Yesterday, the US yield curve bull-flattened, with 2-year yields falling by 5.2 bps to 4.73% and 10-year yields decreasing by 6.2 bps to 4.35%. This movement was due to investors unwinding their short positions on US Treasuries in anticipation of a soft CPI report today. A short squeeze has the potential to push 10-year yields down to test resistance at 4.2%. Yet, breakeven rates remain in an uptrend while commodity prices are surging, making us believe that a rally in the long end might be short-lived. For US Treasury yields key levels amid today’s CPI report, click here.  Weak 3-year auction served as a reminder of the Treasury’s challenges in maintaining pandemic-era demand levels for coupon auctions. Indirect demand was below 2023 averages, while the auction's high yield tailed by 2 bps, the highest since February 2023. After today’s CPI and PPI report, markets’ attention pivots to the ECB meeting on Thursday. A note of caution from Lagarde could imply that the ECB's decisions remain closely tied to the Fed's policy moves, as a weakened Euro could inadvertently fuel another inflation surge (See full report here). Within this environment, we maintain a cautious stance and continue to favor bonds with a maturity of up to five years, while avoiding ultra-long issuances.

Macro: Fitch changed its outlook for China to negative from stable, citing increasing risks to its public finances as the country contends with more uncertainty in its shift to new growth models. The country’s A+ rating was affirmed. Bostic, a voting member of the FOMC reiterated his expectation for one Fed rate cut in 2024 but said he was open to changing his view.

Technical analysis highlights: S&P500 correction unfolding, key support at 5,057. Nasdaq 100 Correction unfolding, needs to close below 17,808 for confirmation. DAX top and reversal, correction likely to 17,900. Hand Seng testing resistance at 17,135
EURUSD likely resuming downtrend, above 1.0885 uptrend GBPUSD spiked above 1.27 but still likely to resume downtrend support at 1.25, uptrend above 1.2685. USDJPY range bound 151.95 – 150.85. EURJPY likely to test 165.35, a break above push to 166.40. AUDJPY uptrend with potential to 101.80. Gold uptrend quite stretched it is intact, could reach 2,400 be aware of potential correction. Silver resistance at 28.75 and 30. Copper hovering around 430 but expect correction. Brent Crude oil uptrend, resist at 93.05, support at 82.56. US 10-year T-yield uptrend likely to test 4.50 resistance  

In the news: Fed's Bostic still expects 1 rate cut in 2024 but doesn’t rule out 0 or 2 (Yahoo), Big investors buy European bonds over US Treasuries as economies diverge (FT), Rheinmetall leads slump after European defence sector's record run (Reuters)

Macro events (all times are GMT): US March CPI, exp. 3.4% YoY from 3.2% prior, Core YoY 3.7% from 3.8% prior (1230), Bank of Canada rate decision (1345), EIA’s Crude and Fuel Stock report (1430), US FOMC Minutes (1800)

Earnings events: Today’s key earnings focus is Delta Air Lines reporting Q1 earnings before the market opens. Analysts expect revenue growth of –2% YoY and EPS of $0.36 compared to $-0.77 a year ago.

  • Today: Seven & I, EXOR, Delta Air Lines, Tesco
  • Thursday: Fast Retailing, Fastenal, Constellation Brands, CarMax
  • Friday: Progressive, Aeon, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, State Street, Citigroup, BlackRock

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.