Macro chat with Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen
Senior Editor, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: Join Saxo’s Chief Economist, Steen Jakobsen, and Head of FX Strategy John J Hardy, for the first edition of our new podcast series exploring the most important macroeconomic themes currently influencing the world’s financial markets and the likely trajectory of developments in the months ahead.
• How the Sino-US trade war may ultimately end with a “non-solution” outcome that would actually be beneficial to both Trump and Xi.
• Why the stable course of the CNY during this trade spat leaves markets dangerously complacent that low volatility will linger.
• Whether the Federal Reserve is now behind the curve or ahead of it with its monetary policy.
• Why the plight of the German car industry will finally force the EU into fiscal action and how the current political uncertainty in the bloc will change the conversation from a bigger Europe to a better Europe.
• Why the Brexit dilemma can’t be solved until UK prime minister May steps down and why there will have to be a second referendum.
• How the Brexit endgame will likely extend beyond the current Halloween deadline and why this is negative for sterling.
• How – and in which asset classes – investors should reposition their portfolios to reflect a period of relative stability over the summer months, followed by autumn volatility as governments start to panic.
Quarterly Outlook Q3 2022: The Runaway Train
- Central banks' attempts to kill inflation is a paradigm shift, which could end in a deep recession.
Tangible assets and profitable growth are the winnersWith US equities officially in a bear market, the big question is where and when is the bottom in the current drawdown?
Understanding the lack of investment appetite among oil majorsThe everything rally seen in recent quarters has become more uneven, as its strength is driven by commodities in short supply.
The pressure is on as the wind leaves the sailsWith cryptocurrencies in sharp decline, are we entering a crypto winter or is the bear market a healthy clean-up of the crypto space?
Why the Fed can never catch up and what turns the US dollar lower?Many other central banks are set to eventually outpace the Fed in hiking rates, taking their real interest rates to levels higher than the Fed will achieve.
Bank of Japan: Swimming against the tideThe Japanese economy has gone from the age of deflation to rapidly rising prices in no time, leaving the Bank of Japan in a pickle.
Green transformation detour and bear market hibernationWith the impending risk of global econonomic derailment, we share the five things investors need to consider in this new half year.
Crisis redux for the eurozone?Whether there's going to be a recession in Europe or not, the path towards a stable economy will be agonizing.
Technical Outlook: Gold, Oil and a remarkable multi-decade perspective on EquitiesThe Nasdaq bubble pattern, USDJPY resistance, crude oil uptrend losing steam and the technical outlook for USD.
China: the train of new development paradigm left the station two years agoChina is transiting to a new development paradigm, as they are hit by deteriorating terms of trade, a slower global economy and an uncertain future while continuing attempts to contain the pandemic.
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