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Key Stories from the past week: Stock sell-off deepens
This week to US government shutdown ended but initial positivity was replaced by cautio over the Fed’s next move at the December meeting. Support for equities finally seemed to make way for more sceptical ‘risk off’ price action with signs of rotation taking place. While calling it a rout may be extreme there has certainly been some dramatic price depreciation from some of this year’s AI tech outperformers. Digital assets were not immune to the weakness while precious metals got their momentum back and tested their highs.
AI tech reset continues
Tech and specifically AI stocks led a selloff on Wall Street yesterday that’s hit sentiment more broadly. Chipmakers and hyperscalers were hit hard as the S&P 500 fell through its 20-day SMA trendline support just at 6,737. Oracle has now shed a third of its value from its high. Palantir has faded since earnings, CoreWeave down -24% for the last 5 trading days.
AI, rate cuts, and what it means for investors
Precious metals surge back
The reopening of the US government refocuses traders on a weakening economic outlook and spending pledges that will further expand the fiscal deficit. With the October correction behind us, buyers are firmly back in control, supported by fresh momentum and fear-of-missing-out flows. Silver’s rallied back +14% toward record levels above USD 54.
Gold and Silver break higher
A volatile week for crude prices
Crude prices are under pressure as signs mount that the long-anticipated supply glut has finally emerged. OPEC—restoring previously idled capacity—reporting that global supply exceeded demand in Q3. The latest IEA forecasts see the oil market facing growing surplus as inventories climb.
Crude oil
UK fiscal policy under scrutiny
Gilts and Sterling sold off on a report that the government won’t now break its manifesto pledge on income tax in the upcoming UK budget. UK 10yr gilt yield jumps +13bps to 4.57%, 2yr gilt yield +6bps to 3.82% as bonds sold off. Sterling dipped, making fresh 2yr lows against the euro.
UK assets fall on prospect on tax plan U-Turn
Key data week includes Japan Q3 GDP (Monday). UK Oct CPI, EU Oct CPI, FOMC minutes (Wednesday), Philadelphia Fed Nov Manufacturing Index, US Oct Existing home sales (Thursday), UK Nov PMI, EU Nov PMI, US Nov PMI, Michigan Nov consumer confidence (Friday). Earnings highlights are XPeng (Monday). Home Depot, PDD, Baidu (Tuesday). Nvidia, TJX, Palo Alto, Lowe’s (Wednesday). Walmart, Intuit, NetEase (Thursday).