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Key Stories from the past week:

Macro

Global equities made their way to record highs with this week’s US rate cut aiding a rotation into value and cyclicals. The S&P500 and Dow Jones both reached fresh records and in Europe the Stoxx 600 trades at a record high lifted by financials and industrials. MSCI Asia is less than 2% from its high. Copper and Silver surge on industrial demand while Natural gas tumbles as inventories pile up. The US dollar rebounded after a post Fed sell-off.

The FED cuts as expected
The US Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps to 3.5%–3.75% with members split over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry. In the end, the decision was made to protect against a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.
Dovish fed drives USD weakness, but how far?

Oracle’s credit risk increases
Oracle slumped more than 11% as softer cloud revenue and heavy AI data-centre spending raised questions about debt-funded expansion. Oracle credit derivatives have become a credit market barometer for AI risk.
Oracle's AI bill arrives

AI demand powers Broadcom sales growth
US tech giant Broadcom announced record revenue as part of their Q4 earnings. The share price, which has rocketed this year, struggled after flagging margin pressure from faster artificial intelligence (AI) sales.
When AI turns into hardware, margins matter

Silver rally to new record
Silver extended its record breaking run with a weekly gain of close to 10% (116% YTD). Industrial demand fuels supply concerns with prices given further support by the FOMC rate cut, which helped soften the dollar and Treasury yields.
Silver's breakout year

Key data released next week includes Eurozone Dec PMI, US Oct&Nov Non-farm payrolls, US Oct Retail sales, US Dec PMI (Tues). Eurozone Nov CPI, Crude oil inventories (Wed). BOE Interest rate decision, ECB Interest rate decision, US Nov CPI, US Initial jobless claims (Thurs). BOJ Interest rate decision, US Oct Core PCE (Fri). Earnings highlights to watch for are Lennar (Tuesday), Micron, General Mills (Wednesday), Accenture, Nike, Fedex (Thursday), Carnival (Friday).

 

 

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