Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
This week saw US equities breaking all-time highs once again with some of the most popular stock names driving Saxo client profits, namely Tesla and Nvidia. A softening of US economic data has solidified expectations that a first Fed rate cut isn’t far away and this in turn has helped lift risk assets as treasury yields fall. The Chinese Shanghai composite index set its seventh straight weekly loss, its longest losing streak since 2021. The slide now increases the pressure on Chinese policymakers ahead of the Third Plenum later this month.
Tesla shares get back in gear
Tesla shares have now gained +75% since bottoming out on the 22nd April. This week’s latest surge came as Tesla 2Q deliveries beat estimates at 443,956 vs 439,302 and was also able to present increasing value of the company’s energy storage business which more than doubled their previous quarterly record for energy deployed in the US. The EV maker now has an opportunity to impress investors with its Robotaxi day on 8th August.
- Tesla established bullish trend
AI gives Samsung a needed boost
Samsung Electronics gains after preliminary Q2 results beat expectations. Q2 profit increases 15-fold to $7.54bn with the company’s memory semiconductor business driving overall performance growth. AI has helped buoy memory-chip prices, which were in a deep slump last year. The AI frenzy will likely keep supply in the overall memory chip market tight. That is good news for Samsung, but it still needs to work harder to protect its leadership position. Samsung's mobile business is seen under performing with a squeeze on profit margin.
- Samsung Electronics forecasts major Q2 profit jump
Bullish sentiment leads upward oil price momentum
Oil remains bid trading at the highest levels since April as positive economic growth drivers and tighter supply are underpinning higher oil prices. Crude oil and especially the fuel products trade higher as Hurricane Beryl raises concerns of a supercharged storm season disrupting production and flow of crude and fuel products to and from the Gulf of Mexico, and together with heightened geopolitical risks, these developments have offset signs of demand weakness in Asia.
- Metals and energy drive early July gains
Next week sees Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testify before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington (Tuesday). June CPI data is due from China (Wednesday), Germany and US (Thursday), France and Spain (Friday). Earnings season will kick off with Pepsico, Delta Airlines (Thursday) and major US banks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon (Friday). We will also have the outcome of the French parliamentary elections and no doubt attention will be on developments in the US presidential election race also.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)