Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors

Chart of the Week: US Employment Growth in Cyclical Sectors

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  This is the new version of "Chart of the Week", including the macro calendar for the week ahead. Your feedback is always welcome.

Due to ongoing uncertainty, US companies have cut CAPEX but not jobs yet. The latest payroll published on last Friday is rather encouraging regarding the state of the US economy.

The headline was a big surprise for most market participants, as the NFP beat consensus at 128k vs 85k expected. The figure is even more impressive considering that the General Motors strike had a very negative impact on employment and subtracted 41k from the figure according to the BLS.

On the top of that, the net 95k upward revision for August and September tends to confirm that the economy is more resilient than most expected.

There is not much market slack as the number of “people not in the labor force but still wanting a job” is back to pre-crisis level.

Unless a macro accident happens in November, the latest NFP report supports the view that the Fed could pause in December, after three consecutive cuts.

However, it is not all good as there are still some signs of weakness, especially in more cyclical sectors (chart below):


  • Employment growth in construction is standing at 1.4% YoY, which is close to its lowest level since 2012;
  • Employment growth in temporary help services is in contraction, at minus 0.1%, the weakest since the end of 2016.

It is too early to talk about risk of contagion to other sectors and our view is still that the US labor market remains well-oriented in the short and medium term, despite the impact of the trade war and China’s slowdown.

Week ahead

Nov. 5: RBA to hold rates at 0.75%.

Nov. 6: Macron-Xi formal meeting. One of the main goals of Macron’s trip is to increase French agricultural exports to China. In other news, the Bank of Thailand may cut rates by 25bps to 1.25% as the THB real effective exchange rate is way too strong.

Nov. 7 to Nov. 20: Privatization of France’s national lottery games (FDJ, for Française des Jeux). It is part of the so called Pacte law aimed to privatize some key French entities and increase business growth and transformation of companies to face international competition. The FDJ is a very profitable company: revenue increased by an average of 5% over the past 25 years and, last year, it distributed 130 million euros in dividends. The French government’s purpose is to reduce its stake in the company from 72% to around 20%. It is considered by investors as the privatization of the year for the French stock market.

Nov. 11: General election in Spain. The most recent polls indicate there is no clear coalition emerging. The PSOE is still leading the polls, but support in its favor is slightly declining to levels close to April election, whereas the PP is gaining more support. Podemos is stable. As of now, the only viable coalition would be a grand coalition gathering the PSOE and the PP, which would be a first in Spain’s history.


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.