Chart of the Week: The “exponential” second wave of COVID-19 in France explained

Chart of the Week: The “exponential” second wave of COVID-19 in France explained

Macro
Christopher Dembik

Head of Macroeconomic Research

Summary:  Our 'Macro Chartmania' series collects Macrobond data and focuses on a single chart chosen for its relevance.


Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.

In today’s edition, we have done some data crunching about COVID-19 numbers in France in order to better understand the risk of second wave and its potential impact on the economy. France is one of the European countries that has been in the spotlight recently due to the strong increase in new COVID-19 cases. In the space of one week, the official daily count of new cases has almost doubled to reach 5,413 and the daily number of new identified clusters has also almost doubled to 40 (as of yesterday). The sharp increase is also confirmed if we look at the 7-day moving average. The number of new cases is at 4,932 versus 3,211 one week ago. Health authorities are now talking about “exponential” second wave of the virus and new social distancing measures have been implemented, such as mandatory mask-wearing in all public spaces (indoors and outdoors) in the biggest cities and compulsory mask-wearing in workplace everywhere in France, as of Sept. 1 (with some exceptions to the rule).

However, contrary to the situation that prevailed in late March/April, the number of fatalities is almost close to zero (13 fatalities as of August 29 vs around 1,000 at the height of the crisis) and new hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) entries are still very limited. At the height of the crisis, the number of patients in intensive care was above 7,000 versus less than 400 nowadays. To some extent, the situation is a little incongruous: we are in the midst of a massive pandemic but hospitals are basically empty. Let’s dig into data. The surge in new cases, which is considered as “exponential”, is certainly partially the result of increased testing. On a weekly basis, the government is currently running about 800,000 tests and wants to reach the threshold of 1,000,000 per week shortly. Another explanation is that young adults, which represent a growing number of new cases but are more resilient than older people, are less vigilant and more reluctant to strictly respect social distancing measures, thus facilitating the spread of the virus. Despite the surge in the number of new cases, the pandemic seems to be under control for the moment. However, we are not out of the woods yet. It is unclear whether the health system will have the capacity to simultaneously deal with COVID-19 and flu this fall if the number of hospital and intensive care unit entries would sharply rise.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

None of the information provided on this website constitutes an offer, solicitation, or endorsement to buy or sell any financial instrument, nor is it financial, investment, or trading advice. Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd. (Saxo) and the Saxo Bank Group provides execution-only services, with all trades and investments based on self-directed decisions. Analysis, research, and educational content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered advice nor a recommendation. Access and use of this website is subject to: (i) the Terms of Use; (ii) the full Disclaimer; (iii) the Risk Warning; and (iv) any other notice or terms applying to Saxo’s news and research.

Saxo’s content may reflect the personal views of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Mentions of specific financial products are for illustrative purposes only and may serve to clarify financial literacy topics. Content classified as investment research is marketing material and does not meet legal requirements for independent research.

Before making any investment decisions, you should assess your own financial situation, needs, and objectives, and consider seeking independent professional advice. Saxo does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information provided and assumes no liability for any errors, omissions, losses, or damages resulting from the use of this information.

Please refer to our full disclaimer for more details.

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992