Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Chart of the Week: Japan machine tool orders
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: An often overlooked and somewhat old fashioned Japanese economic indicator speaks volumes about the increasingly depressing industrial landscape.
Japan machine tool orders is an old school business cycle indicator. It is not so popular nowadays, though it still points to very interesting signals about the economy and how it is performing. Since the beginning of 2018, orders have experienced a sharp collapse, which is worse than during the China turmoil of 2015-16, as you can see in the below chart.
The last print for the month of February is at minus 29% YoY. Orders could slide further in coming months since buyers remain very cautious about investing decisions and are reluctant to take the last step and sign a contract. As a direct consequence, it is likely to push machine tool makers to rethink their own investment plans and maybe cut jobs. This negative trend in orders is mostly explained by trade wars, as a final agreement between the US and China is still out of reach, and China’s slowdown is expected to continue before stabilisation in Q3 2019. This is another indicator that underlines the current risks to growth and confirms we are approaching the end of the current business cycle.
The last print for the month of February is at minus 29% YoY. Orders could slide further in coming months since buyers remain very cautious about investing decisions and are reluctant to take the last step and sign a contract. As a direct consequence, it is likely to push machine tool makers to rethink their own investment plans and maybe cut jobs. This negative trend in orders is mostly explained by trade wars, as a final agreement between the US and China is still out of reach, and China’s slowdown is expected to continue before stabilisation in Q3 2019. This is another indicator that underlines the current risks to growth and confirms we are approaching the end of the current business cycle.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy