Asia Market Quick Take – 26 March, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 26 March, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Iran rejects US ceasefire and counters with 5-point proposal
• Equities: Arm gains 16% on plan to sell own chips;Pop Mart -22.5% after revenue miss
• FX: NOKUSD leads gains; AUDUSD struggles amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties
• Commodities: Gold stays above $4,500 and WTI above $90
• Fixed income: European bonds rallied sharply, led by UK long‑end gilts

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro: 

• The White House says talks continue, with the US sending a 15-point proposal to Iran. Iran reviews the plan but won't negotiate, rejecting a US ceasefire and countering with a five-point proposal for control of the Strait of Hormuz.The US deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East, raising concerns about a possible ground invasion.
• The US current account deficit narrowed to $190.7 billion in Q4 2025, the lowest since Q1 2021. The goods deficit decreased, and the primary income balance turned to a $23.9 billion surplus. The services surplus and secondary income deficit slightly decreased. The deficit was 2.4% of GDP, down from 3.1% in Q3.
• US import prices rose 1.3% in February 2026, the highest since March 2022. Fuel prices increased 3.8%, with petroleum up 2.5% and natural gas jumping 24.7%. Nonfuel imports rose 1.1%. Annually, import prices saw the largest gain since February 2025.
• RBA warned the Iran war could raise inflation due to capacity pressures. Australia's CPI fell to 3.7% in February, with trimmed mean CPI at 3.3%, below forecasts. Wall Street's positive lead offered some offset, with hopes for conflict resolution.
• UK's annual inflation remained at 3% in February 2026.Clothing prices rose 0.9%, while housing and utilities increased at 4.6%. Inflation slowed for transport, food, recreation, and restaurants. Monthly CPI rose 0.4%, recovering from January's fall. Core inflation increased to 3.2%.

Equities:

• US - US equities rallied Wednesday as reports of a 15‑point US peace proposal delivered to Tehran raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.8%. Falling WTI crude prices and sharply lower Treasury yields eased inflation concerns and lifted risk appetite. Technology stocks led, with Nvidia up 2% and AMD and Intel surging over 7%, while Super Micro Computer bouncing 8.2%. PDD gained 4.6% despite missing net profit estimates In after hours, Arm holdings rallied 16% after planning to sell its own chips, aiming to generate $15b annually within 5 years.
• EU - The STOXX 50 gained 0.6% to 5,627, while the STOXX 600 climbed 1.2% to 586. Although Tehran rejected US ceasefire proposals, markets welcomed Washington’s signal to prioritize stability and lower energy prices. Banks led gains as bond markets stabilized, with ING, Deutsche Bank, Santanderand BBVA up over 2%. Industrials and chemicals also advanced as natural gas prices fell for a fourth session, boosting margin outlooks.
• Asia – On Wednesday, Asian markets rallied on optimism about US-Iran ceasefire talks, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 2.4%. Major indices saw gains: Nikkei 225 (+2.87%), TWSE (+2.54%), ASX 200 (+1.85%), KOSPI (+1.59%), Shanghai Composite (+1.30%), and Hang Seng (+1.09%). Chinese tech stocks surged following regulatory actions against unfair competition, with Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com gaining significantly.Pop Mart's shares dropped 22.5% due to concerns over Labubu reliance and missed earnings.Haidilao fell 11.1% aftera surprise dividend cut, but analysts expect positive 2026 growth.On Thursday morning, Nikkei 225 rose 0.42%, while Kospi dropped 1.29%, hit by declines in Samsung and SK Hynix. ASX 200 was up 0.16% at 8,547.60, as gains in financials offset losses in miners.Market sentiment leaned downside due to Tehran rejecting US peace proposals, despite US assurances of ongoing talks.

Earnings this week:

• Thursday - Veritone, Designer Brands, Oxford, Commercial Metals Company, Meituan
• Friday - Carnival Corporation, The Metals Company, Super League, AutoPlus, Ping an, BYD

FX:

• Several G10 currency pairs exhibited notable movements against the USD due to geopolitical uncertainties and market dynamics. The NOKUSD was the best performer, appreciating by 0.71%. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD fell by 0.72%, marking it the worst performer within the group. 
• JPY also weakened, USDJPY reaching 159.47, maintaining its position above the crucial 159 level. 
• EURUSD depreciated by 0.40%, settling at $1.1561, marking its largest one-day percentage decline since earlier in March. These movements reflect the market's reaction to the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran ceasefire negotiations and the rebalancing activities of fund managers as they approached the month-end and quarter-end.
• CAD weakened, with USDCAD climbing to 1.3813, the highest since January 21, 2026, surpassing its 200-day moving average at 1.3805. 

Commodities:

• Oil rose as Washington and Tehran issued conflicting statements on ending the war that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, curbed crude output and stoked energy‑crisis fears, with WTI nearing $91 after Wednesday’s 2% drop and Brent above $102 as the White House touted talks while Iran demanded sovereign control of the waterway.
• Gold steadied near $4,510 after a two‑day rebound of over 2% as traders weighed conflicting US–Iran signals, with the White House touting talks and a 15‑point proposal, Tehran rejecting US overtures and setting conditions, and the US sending thousands of troops, stoking invasion fears.

Fixed income:

• Treasury futures largely held early gains within a narrow US range; the belly softened after a tailed 5‑year note auction, but lower oil prices kept yields below Tuesday’s levels. A sharp rally in European bonds provided support, led by the UK, where long‑end gilts richened by more than 10bp in 10s and 30s. Australia’s 3‑year yield rose after RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent said the board remains focused on inflation. Overnight-indexed swaps are pricing in a 48% chance of three rate hikes by year‑end, up from 28% on Wednesday. New Zealand, Japan and the US are set to auction debt.

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