Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: EURUSD approaching key support at 1.0480
USDJPY reaching 0.382 retracement testing resistance area
GBPUSD trading around 200 Moving Average. Double top pattern still in play
AUDUSD Shoulder-Head- Shoulder pattern unfolding with further downside potential
EURUSD is approaching the 0.382 retracement at 1.0461 and the support at around 1.0481. A bounce from here should be expected.
Trend is down, however supported by negative RSI suggesting there is further downside potential in EURUSD.
The 200 daily Moving Average could be tested in the very near future probably dipping down to key strong support at around 1.,0240.
To reverse the bearish trend a close above 1.0805 is needed.
USDJPY has reached the 0.382 retracement at 136.53 just below the 200 and the 100 daily Moving Average, and below the strong resistance at around 137.85.
A minor correction after the past couple of weeks uptrend should be expected. However, RSI indicates higher USDJPY levels.
If USDJPY breaks above 137.85 a move to strong resistance and 0.618 retracement at around 142.25 is in the cards.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 129.80 is needed
GBPUSD. Possible Double top pattern is still in play. A close below 1.1840 will confirm it with downside potential to 1.1241 and strong support at around 1.1143.
See previous Technical Update on GBPUSD: https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/forex/technical-analysis-eurusd-usdjpy-audusd-usd-index-17022023
AUDUSD Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern unfolding.
After breaking below Neckline AUDUSD could drop to support at around 0.6640. A close below could lead to further selling pressure.
For AUDUSD to reverse the bearish trend a close above 0.6920 is needed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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