Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
EURNOK yesterday broke below support at around 11.60 to close below the Cloud (shaded area) and below both the 100 and the 200 DMA. Following through today Friday a test of the next support at around 11.30 seems likely.
Daily RSI is in negative territory strongly indicating lower EURNOK levels supporting the push to 11.30.
Medium-term – weekly chart – the past two days sell-off has pushed the RSI below its lower rising trendline indicating the medium-term uptrend is reversing (if closing the week below that is).
A weekly RSI close below 40 will further confirm bearish scenario for EURNOKEURSEK is testing support at around 11.18 and is quite likely to break below continuing its bearish move to key strong support at around 11.00
Medium-term EURSEK has retraced 0.382 of the entire uptrend since Q4 2021. Weekly RSI is in negative sentiment indicating lower EURSEK levels.
NOKSEK is bouncing strongly from the May 2023 trough around 0.9480 and is likely to test the 0.382 retracement and resistance at around 0.9850. The declining 55 DMA is adding to the resistance strength
A close above could give NOKSEK further energy to move higher to par, possibly to the 0.618 retracement at 1.01Disclaimer
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