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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
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Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Potential reversal patterns emerging in EURGBP & GBPAUD. Correction not over in GBPJPY?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
Summary:
EURGBP seems to be forming a Double Bottom reversal pattern
GBPJPY correction might not be over and lower levels could be seen short-term
GBPAUD potential Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern short-term but inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern medium-term
EURGBP could be in the process of forming a Double Bottom pattern. A break above 0.8660 will confirm that scenario with potential up to around 0.88 as indicated by the two vertical arrows.
The daily 55 Moving Average will provide some resistance.
If EURGBP slides back below 0.85 the down trend is to continue with levels around 0.84-0.8350 in sight
GBPJPY bounced off its rising trendline around support at 179.90. However, there Is still RSI divergence indicating we could see larger correction. If GBPJPY breaks below 179.40 it could fuel a sell-off down to 0.382 retracement and support at 174.20
A close above 180.20 the uptrend is likely to resume with likely new highs above 184 to follow
GBPAUD forming a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern or uptrend to resuming?
If GBPAUD closes below potential Neckline it could be an SHS reversal pattern unfolding. The SHS reversal pattern will be confirmed if GBPAUD is breaking below 1.8955 with downside potential to 1.85
The RSI divergence indicates the4 potential SHS pattern is likely to unfold
However, if GBPAUD takes out peak at around 1.9392 uptrend has resumed and the RSI divergence has most likely been cancelled.
Upside potential Short- to medium term would be 1.98-2.00 – see weekly chart where a Reversed SHS pattern is unfolding its potential. Medium-to longer term upside potential to 2.00-2.05
To cancel the medium-term inverted SHS pattern a clsoe below 1.8450 is needed
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