Technical Update - AUD pairs on the move testing or breaking key levels Technical Update - AUD pairs on the move testing or breaking key levels Technical Update - AUD pairs on the move testing or breaking key levels

Technical Update - AUD pairs on the move testing or breaking key levels

Forex 4 minutes to read
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  AUD pairs on the move either testing or breaking key levels
AUDUSD rejected at key resistance at 0.7122
AUDJPY possible Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern unfolding
GBPAUD possible double top pattern
AUDNZD strong uptrend eyeing 1.11
EURAUD can it break key support at 1.5265?

Today's Saxo Market Call podcast.
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team

AUDUSD Resistance at around 0.7122 could be too strong for AUDUSD to break, at least at first attempt. Trend is up and RSI is bullish with no divergence indicating higher AUDUSD levels are likely i.e., a move to strong resistance at around 0.7265 is in the cards. If reached a correction should be expected. 
If AUDUSD slides back below 0.6870 this bullish picture will be in jeopardy and a close below 0.6640 will reverse it.

Medium-term the key question is whether AUDUSD can close the week above its 200 weekly SMA. If it can and if AUDUSD breaks above resistance at 0.7122 the pair will face resistance at the falling trendline. A close above the falling trend line is likely to pave the way to resistance at 0.7265 and longer-term 0.7536.
IF AUDUSD closes the week at current level or higher RSI is above 60 threshold i.e., positive sentiment supporting the bullish scenario.

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

AUDJPY has once again bounced off support area around 88. The pair could caught in a range between 88 and 92.70 where 100 and 200 Moving Averages are providing resistance. AUDJPY needs to close above 93 to get upside traction towards resistance  at around 95.40 and 98.40.
Indicators are currently indicating a weaker AUDJPY. RSI is still negative – it must close above 60 to reverse that – and 55, 100 and 200 Moving Averages are declining. AUDJPY could be range bound between 93 and 87 for quite some time.

Medium-term AUDJPY is drawing a complex Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern (weekly chart) with potential down to 81-80. That very bearish picture will emerge if AUDJPY closes below the neckline which is the 1.618 projection of the distance between the Head peak and the neckline..
If AUDJPY manages to close above 91.85 a move to around 92.50 could be seen but for AUDJPY  to reverse the bearish trend a close above 93.35 is needed

GBPAUD has formed a double top like pattern and a close below 1.7450 will confirm that picture with potential for a bearish move down to around 1.66-1.65.
At the time of writing where GBPAUD has broken the support RSI is below 40 i.e., in negative sentiment and Bollinger Bands are expanding thus supporting the bearish outlook.
To demolish this negative picture a close above 1.80 is needed.

AUDNZD has bounced from the 55 SMA now trading around the 100 SMA. With RSI showing positive sentiment AUDNZD is set for a test of the resistance at around 1.10 and a move to the 0.618 retracement at around 1.1095.
Medium-term picture AUDNZD seems to be forming (another) Bullish Engulfing candle this week. A close above 1.0938 at the end of this week is needed for this to materialize. That would be a strong signal that AUDNZD will move higher and weekly RSI is likely to break back above 60 thus turning to positive sentiment.

EURAUD Current selling pressure seems likely to test key support at around 1.5265. If closing below the RSI will also close below its 40 threshold indicating further decline for EURAUD.
A sell-off down to the 200 daily SMA and the support at around 1.5065 could be seen.
If that scenario plays out ERUAUD is below its 55 weekly SMA.
EURAUD has failed to close above 200 weekly SMA on several occasions. On the weekly chart two possible scenarios have been drawn. First one (red arrow) EURAUD breaks below 1.5265 and below 55 SMA.
Second (blue arrows) is a bounce and correction from 1.5265 support followed by a sell-off down below 1.5265 the pair could be forming a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder like pattern.


RSI divergence explained: When instrument price is making a new high/low but RSI values are not making new high/low at the same time. That is a sign of imbalance in the market and an weakening of the uptrend/downtrend. Divergence or imbalance in the market can go on for quite some time but not forever. It is an indication of an exhaustion of the trend

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992