Technical Update - Bigger picture: AUDUSD, EURAUD, EURGBP, EURUSD , GBPAUD, GBPUSD & USDCHF
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group
7 FX pairs with interest pattern development. Medium to longer term view. All weekly charts.
AUDUSD: Falling Wedge breakout testing 0.618 Fibo level . If breaking above price could extend to 0.800
EURAUD: (Descending) Triangle like pattern which seems to be the right complex Shoulder area in what looks like a Complex Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern. Break out has reached 0.50 Fibo Extension. Not unlikely to test 0.618 Extension and strong support at around 1.44.
EURGBP: Trading in a falling channel. 0.8200-0.8250 seems to be strong support area. . Bullish break out of falling trend could push EURGBP to 200 weekly SMA and top of start of channel around 0.87
GBPUSD: Double Top pattern unfolded and target reached. However, bear trend not unlikely to continue towards 1.2750-1.2675 - after a likely correction where GBPUSD could test upper falling trend line in the channel. 200 Weekly SMA offers some support
USDCHF: Forming an Ascending Triangle like pattern. Wait for break out direction. Strong resistance at 0.9550. Bullish break out likely target is 1.00. Resistance at 0.99. Bear break out, likely price target lows of the triangle i.e. around 0.8740.
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Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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