background image background image background image

NY Open: The stage is set for a big finish to January

Forex 4 minutes to read
Michael O’Neill

FX Trader,

Summary:  Next week is the end of January and FX markets are poised for a big finish. There is another UK parliamentary vote on Theresa May’s Brexit Plan B, a FOMC meeting, nonfarm payrolls data and the possibility of month-end portfolio rebalancing high jinks

There is increasing optimism for a positive result for Brexit Plan B at Tuesday’s vote, but the debate is far from settled. The UK Sun reported that Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party would back Prime Minister May’s plan, and that has traders wary of a vicious short squeeze higher.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting could be a barn-burner, especially if Fed Chair Jerome Powell answers questions about his apparent flip-flop between the December 21 press conference and his January 4 speech. The committee is widely expected to leave rates unchanged.

The consensus forecast for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is for a gain of 168,000 jobs, well below Decembers 312,000 increase, but still healthy.

Other flash-points include the US government shutdown and the US/China trade talks. Positive developments from either one them would boost Wall Street and spark a bit of a “risk-on” rally in FX.

The US dollar is on the defensive. The major G-10 currency pairs all posted gains since this morning’s open, and they are making a serious run at eliminating all their losses since last Friday’s close. Only the Australian dollar is underwater, as of 1345 GMT. NZDUSD is leading the charge higher, but it is an extremely close race. USDJPY is the laggard, and it is unchanged since the open. GBPUSD appears to have snapped the downtrend line from April 2018 with the break above 1.2980 on a daily chart which puts 1.3250 in play.

US stocks are higher as Wall Street follows the lead of European bourses. Prices are supported by a mix of profit-taking, some positive earnings reports, and the mildly improved outlook for US/China trade. However, the major indices need to climb a lot further to get back to Tuesday’s levels.
GBPUSD daily. Source: Saxo Bank


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992