FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Nothing says September like a new iPhone announcement. Apple (AAPL:xnas) is expected to unveil a suite of products today including super-sized phones, watches, and airbuds. They are also expected to announce higher prices which seems defiant in the face of President Trump’s 25% tariff threat on China imports. Unfortunately, investors are nearly as defiant about the China trade threat. They are even less impressed with the increasing risk of harsher regulatory oversight on the major tech stocks. AAPL is down 1.35% this morning helping to drag the Nasdaq lower as well. The DJIA and the S&P 500 are only slightly better than flat.
Oil prices have been blown higher, in part due to fears that Hurricane Florence, a Category 5 storm, will disrupt production in the US. Opec announced it trimmed its 2019 global oil demand growth forecast, saying the risk to the economic outlook was to the downside. Nevertheless, its 2019 forecast still calls for an increase of 1.41 million/barrels per day.
The Energy Information Administration’s weekly crude inventory report showed a larger-than-expected decline in stocks; WTI oil climbed from $67.50/barrel yesterday to $70.84/b as of this writing.
FX markets are spinning their wheels ahead of tomorrow’s European Central Bank and Bank of England policy meetings until just after 14:00 GMT. The US dollar slid against the G-10 majors although this morning’s US data were mostly a non-event.
USDCAD accelerated lower this morning on fresh reports of a US/Canada trade talk breakthrough. Apparently, yesterday's end-of-day rumours that Canada would make concessions on supply management and give the Americans access to the dairy industry. USDCAD dropped from 1.3130 yesterday afternoon to 1.3055 at the New York open. Prices crashed through 1.3040 support on the latest news.
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish with the break below 1.3020 targeting 1.2975 and then 1.2900.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
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