FX Update: Yields quick to pick up whenever risk sentiment improves.
Head of FX Strategy, Saxo Bank Group
Summary: The risk-takers are making a show across markets, with the Aussie and kiwi leading the attempt to express show more positive risk sentiment after a hawkish RBNZ meeting overnight. But it looks far too early to call the all-clear as the latest geopolitical concerns ease slightly, as central bank expectations and rising yields quickly move in to fill the gap as risk sentiment improves.
FX Trading Focus: Yield expectations rebound quickly on the slightest improvement in risk sentiment.
Markets are rebounding cautiously after the Western sanctions against Russia’s latest move to recognize the Ukrainian breakaway regions were seen as relatively measured. US president Biden announced sanctions on Russian figures near Putin, on two Russian banks, and on new purchases of Russian sovereign debt, moves similar to those made by the UK, while the EU sanctioned hundreds of Russian parliamentarians and German Chancellor Scholz announced a halt to the approval process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The sanctions were positioned as first steps to be followed by more on further Russian moves in Ukraine. Risk-correlated FX has continued to trade well since yesterday, especially led by the Aussie and kiwi overnight in the wake of a more hawkish RBNZ (more below), with AUDUSD challenging above the prior pivot high near 0.7250 this morning. Elsewhere, the Scandies are pushing on interesting levels versus the Euro (10.55-50 in EURSEK and EURNOK 10.02-00). EURCHF is bid and the JPY is weak. But these moves would need to extend aggressively and stick a solid close into the end of the week to argue that something bigger is building here, together with a firmer rally in equity markets.
Meanwhile, it is interesting to note the speed with which yields have jumped back higher as the market continues to price more aggressive central banks – the US 2-year even managed to poke ata the highs of the cycle overnight and short EU Yields have jumped back aggressively, perhaps in part on the ECB’s Holzmann calling for two rate hikes this year from the ECB, saying that it is possible to hike rates before ending bond purchase (makes the most sense to me) and that a 1.5% ECB policy rate is realistic by 2024. Also, EU rates should have higher beta to risk sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions relative to the US, etc. The ECB’s Villeroy was out this morning calling for more “flexibility” which seems code for the willingness to move more quickly on rates eventually if inflationary outcomes are far higher than forecasts (while also buying optionality in the opposite direct if the economy tanks on the ongoing energy price spike).
The RBNZ surprises with hawkish rate forecast The RBNZ hiked the policy rate 25 basis points as expected, which took the Official Cash Rate to 1.00%, but the guidance was far more hawkish than expected, as the forecast for the OCR by the end of 2023 was raised to 3.25% from 2.50% previously. This was a slightly jarring upshift in hawkishness after a prior modest downshift in tightening expectations and the kiwi responded with a bit of strength as 2-year NZ rates lifted 10-12 basis points overnight. AUDNZD is under a bit of pressure, but the up-trend will stay healthy as long as the price action remains north of about 1.0600.
EURCHF has bounced back strongly, but still looks one bad headline away from plunging back toward the 1.0300-50 cycle support, but the longer the situation in Ukraine fails to escalate further and the more yields attempt to rise again in Europe, the more support we will see for a move back higher, with the longer term concern that the energy/power crunch in Europe has crushed growth prospects for the foreseeable future if these prices don’t come down quickly. In this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast we discussed the fact that higher energy prices have been baked into the economic cake through at least next winter in the forward market.
Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
The kiwi perked up on the RBNZ overnight, but a strong broad surge will require durable risk sentiment improvement across asset markets. Elsewhere, there is little to nothing for trend traders to hand their hats on here, save for watching gold to ensure that the up-trend finds support ahead of perhaps 1860-70 in XAUUSD terms.
Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
A few pairs creeping onto the radar here – with AUDUSD especially worth watching as it has cleared a local pivot to the upside, if not yet the bigger resistance above 0.7300, and we also have EURSEK making a bid at pushing down through the 10.55-50 area today – a move down through there would suggest a bearish reversal. EURNOK is in a similar place, with the psychological 10.00 soon in play if it continues lower, while the bigger local area is more like 9.90.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1500 – UK Bank of England’s Tenreyro to speak
- 1600 – ECB's de Cos to speak
- 2010 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr to speak before parliament committee
- 2030 – US Fed’s Daly (non voter) to speak
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
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Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
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