FX Update: Yields quick to pick up whenever risk sentiment improves. FX Update: Yields quick to pick up whenever risk sentiment improves. FX Update: Yields quick to pick up whenever risk sentiment improves.

FX Update: Yields quick to pick up whenever risk sentiment improves.

Forex 4 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The risk-takers are making a show across markets, with the Aussie and kiwi leading the attempt to express show more positive risk sentiment after a hawkish RBNZ meeting overnight. But it looks far too early to call the all-clear as the latest geopolitical concerns ease slightly, as central bank expectations and rising yields quickly move in to fill the gap as risk sentiment improves.

FX Trading Focus: Yield expectations rebound quickly on the slightest improvement in risk sentiment.

Markets are rebounding cautiously after the Western sanctions against Russia’s latest move to recognize the Ukrainian breakaway regions were seen as relatively measured. US president Biden announced sanctions on Russian figures near Putin, on two Russian banks, and on new purchases of Russian sovereign debt, moves similar to those made by the UK, while the EU sanctioned hundreds of Russian parliamentarians and German Chancellor Scholz announced a halt to the approval process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The sanctions were positioned as first steps to be followed by more on further Russian moves in Ukraine. Risk-correlated FX has continued to trade well since yesterday, especially led by the Aussie and kiwi overnight in the wake of a more hawkish RBNZ (more below), with AUDUSD challenging above the prior pivot high near 0.7250 this morning. Elsewhere, the Scandies are pushing on interesting levels versus the Euro (10.55-50 in EURSEK and EURNOK 10.02-00). EURCHF is bid and the JPY is weak. But these moves would need to extend aggressively and stick a solid close into the end of the week to argue that something bigger is building here, together with a firmer rally in equity markets.

Meanwhile, it is interesting to note the speed with which yields have jumped back higher as the market continues to price more aggressive central banks – the US 2-year even managed to poke ata the highs of the cycle overnight and short EU Yields have jumped back aggressively, perhaps in part on the ECB’s Holzmann calling for two rate hikes this year from the ECB, saying that it is possible to hike rates before ending bond purchase (makes the most sense to me) and that a 1.5% ECB policy rate is realistic by 2024. Also, EU rates should have higher beta to risk sentiment linked to geopolitical tensions relative to the US, etc. The ECB’s Villeroy was out this morning calling for more “flexibility” which seems code for the willingness to move more quickly on rates eventually if inflationary outcomes are far higher than forecasts (while also buying optionality in the opposite direct if the economy tanks on the ongoing energy price spike).

The RBNZ surprises with hawkish rate forecast The RBNZ hiked the policy rate 25 basis points as expected, which took the Official Cash Rate to 1.00%, but the guidance was far more hawkish than expected, as the forecast for the OCR by the end of 2023 was raised to 3.25% from 2.50% previously. This was a slightly jarring upshift in hawkishness after a prior modest downshift in tightening expectations and the kiwi responded with a bit of strength as 2-year NZ rates lifted 10-12 basis points overnight. AUDNZD is under a bit of pressure, but the up-trend will stay healthy as long as the price action remains north of about 1.0600.

EURCHF has bounced back strongly, but still looks one bad headline away from plunging back toward the 1.0300-50 cycle support, but the longer the situation in Ukraine fails to escalate further and the more yields attempt to rise again in Europe, the more support we will see for a move back higher, with the longer term concern that the energy/power crunch in Europe has crushed growth prospects for the foreseeable future if these prices don’t come down quickly. In this morning’s Saxo Market Call podcast we discussed the fact that higher energy prices have been baked into the economic cake through at least next winter in the forward market.

Source: Saxo Group

Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
The kiwi perked up on the RBNZ overnight, but a strong broad surge will require durable risk sentiment improvement across asset markets. Elsewhere, there is little to nothing for trend traders to hand their hats on here, save for watching gold to ensure that the up-trend finds support ahead of perhaps 1860-70 in XAUUSD terms.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
A few pairs creeping onto the radar here – with AUDUSD especially worth watching as it has cleared a local pivot to the upside, if not yet the bigger resistance above 0.7300, and we also have EURSEK making a bid at pushing down through the 10.55-50 area today – a move down through there would suggest a bearish reversal. EURNOK is in a similar place, with the psychological 10.00 soon in play if it continues lower, while the bigger local area is more like 9.90.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)

  • 1500 – UK Bank of England’s Tenreyro to speak
  • 1600 – ECB's de Cos to speak
  • 2010 – New Zealand RBNZ Governor Orr to speak before parliament committee
  • 2030 – US Fed’s Daly (non voter) to speak


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo Markets is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘SCML’). SCML is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo Markets assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992