FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives

FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives

Forex 4 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The US dollar is broadly bid here, with implications for EURUSD traders in particularly on a weak close today. Tactically, NZD crosses face an important test as the bearish trend confirmation for the kiwi is increasingly in evidence ahead of the important Q3 NZ CPI release later today.

A few highlighted charts where important technical events are unfolding.

EURUSD – a reversal?
EURUSD is in retreat after the recent rally never saw the pair fully retracing the full extent of the prior wave lower, and never seriously threatening the critical 1.1110 area first approached all the way back in April of this year. The near-term pressure appears to be for a retest of the lows if the tactical and psychological pivot area of 1.1000 fails on today’s close.

Source: Saxo Group

NZDUSD – awaiting confirmation
NZDUSD performed a smart reversal after Friday’s attempt at an upside break, providing a fresh hook for new bearish positions, and we await the potential for further follow through lower on the generally strong USD picture, but possibly on any data misses from New Zealand, with the important NZ Q3 CPI data point up tonight. Note that the lower line is the major post-global financial crisis low from 2015 for the pair.

Source: Saxo Group

AUDNZD – ditto
As with our discussion of NZDUSD above, we have kiwi weakness again in evidence here after the recent consolidation was rather shallow and never took a full look lower toward the 200-day moving average, so far an encouraging sign for secular AUDNZD bulls. We are awaiting further confirmation of the tactical turning point back higher (or rejection of that notion) over tonight’s New Zealand Q3 CPI release. A particularly weak CPI data point could move forward the market’s anticipation of RBNZ easing and drive a follow-up rally toward 1.1000 and higher.

Source: Saxo Group

EURNOK – pressuring to the upside again.
EURNOK is eyeing its highest close for the cycle as weak oil prices weigh on NOK -  a real squeeze could be afoot to points far north if both a) the Brent crude price can’t take a stand ahead of 50 dollars and b) global risk sentiment rolls over again for any reason – for example on US-China trade talks failing to progress. The key driver could be the psychological separation from the assumed general cap of the round level of 10.00, which could force short volatility players to cover and insufficiently hedged participants to play catch-up with the move.

Source: Saxo Group


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo Markets
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992