FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives

FX Chart Highlights: NZD weakness awaits confirmation, EURUSD dives

Forex 4 minutes to read
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The US dollar is broadly bid here, with implications for EURUSD traders in particularly on a weak close today. Tactically, NZD crosses face an important test as the bearish trend confirmation for the kiwi is increasingly in evidence ahead of the important Q3 NZ CPI release later today.

A few highlighted charts where important technical events are unfolding.

EURUSD – a reversal?
EURUSD is in retreat after the recent rally never saw the pair fully retracing the full extent of the prior wave lower, and never seriously threatening the critical 1.1110 area first approached all the way back in April of this year. The near-term pressure appears to be for a retest of the lows if the tactical and psychological pivot area of 1.1000 fails on today’s close.

Source: Saxo Group

NZDUSD – awaiting confirmation
NZDUSD performed a smart reversal after Friday’s attempt at an upside break, providing a fresh hook for new bearish positions, and we await the potential for further follow through lower on the generally strong USD picture, but possibly on any data misses from New Zealand, with the important NZ Q3 CPI data point up tonight. Note that the lower line is the major post-global financial crisis low from 2015 for the pair.

Source: Saxo Group

AUDNZD – ditto
As with our discussion of NZDUSD above, we have kiwi weakness again in evidence here after the recent consolidation was rather shallow and never took a full look lower toward the 200-day moving average, so far an encouraging sign for secular AUDNZD bulls. We are awaiting further confirmation of the tactical turning point back higher (or rejection of that notion) over tonight’s New Zealand Q3 CPI release. A particularly weak CPI data point could move forward the market’s anticipation of RBNZ easing and drive a follow-up rally toward 1.1000 and higher.

Source: Saxo Group

EURNOK – pressuring to the upside again.
EURNOK is eyeing its highest close for the cycle as weak oil prices weigh on NOK -  a real squeeze could be afoot to points far north if both a) the Brent crude price can’t take a stand ahead of 50 dollars and b) global risk sentiment rolls over again for any reason – for example on US-China trade talks failing to progress. The key driver could be the psychological separation from the assumed general cap of the round level of 10.00, which could force short volatility players to cover and insufficiently hedged participants to play catch-up with the move.

Source: Saxo Group


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.