Outrageous Predictions
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FX Breakout Monitor for December 11
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Summary: This is the first release of the Beta of our new FX Breakout Monitor, a look at FX crosses – and gold and silver in USD terms – and whether they are trading near or at breakout levels on short- and medium-term time frames.
Our new FX Breakout monitor looks at the major FX pairs and crosses as well as a handful of emerging market crosses versus the US dollar and spot silver and gold. The breakout overview hopefully offers a quick way to highlight the currency pairs that are nearing a breakout level – or have just broken out – and to highlight the signals we find interesting.
The overview is geared more towards new signal discovery rather than highlighting FX pairs that have broken out some time ago and are already trending and posting a string of new highs or lows. Note the PDF link here if you would prefer to view off-line. A few explanatory notes to follow soon on the table contents.
In the future, this overview will accompany standard trade setups for trading breakout signals that could be of interest, in the hope that the breakout sets a solid trending move in motion. Stay tuned for much more.
Today’s SaxoStrats FX Breakout Monitor snapshot (keep in mind that it is a snapshot only and could change before the close of the day’s trading.) Click here for PDF version.
Two signals today: EURCHF (19-day and 49-day downside) and XAGUSD (19-day upside) breakouts:
Chart: XAGUSD
The spot silver situation is getting interesting, but the last two signals of new 19-day high closes aren’t quite there yet as we have yet to clear the well established range stretching back all the way to August. A solid break and close above 15.00 may be needed ultimately – or a high momentum close above 14.75 at minimum, here – to convince the breakout trader that a new trend is under way. Note the shading of deep blue of silver’s ATR on the FX Breakout Overview chart, which indicates very quiet trading conditions and possibly lack of trading interest.
The spot silver situation is getting interesting, but the last two signals of new 19-day high closes aren’t quite there yet as we have yet to clear the well established range stretching back all the way to August. A solid break and close above 15.00 may be needed ultimately – or a high momentum close above 14.75 at minimum, here – to convince the breakout trader that a new trend is under way. Note the shading of deep blue of silver’s ATR on the FX Breakout Overview chart, which indicates very quiet trading conditions and possibly lack of trading interest.
Chart: EURCHF
In the case of EURCHF, yesterday’s break of the 1.1275 was the key break signal – but as this is still new, the signal is highlighted again today. EURCHF is a reluctant trender and sensitive to EU news and concerns that the Swiss National Bank could step in to defend – as well, we haven’t cleared the range lows back from September.
In the case of EURCHF, yesterday’s break of the 1.1275 was the key break signal – but as this is still new, the signal is highlighted again today. EURCHF is a reluctant trender and sensitive to EU news and concerns that the Swiss National Bank could step in to defend – as well, we haven’t cleared the range lows back from September.
Chart: GBPUSD
An example of a recent breakout is GBPUSD, which posted a new 19-day (within range) and more importantly, a 49-day (beyond range) breakout yesterday. This looks a valid breakout until proven otherwise on a close back above the 1.2695 area – the risky part being that Brexit headlines can prove treacherous in either direction.
An example of a recent breakout is GBPUSD, which posted a new 19-day (within range) and more importantly, a 49-day (beyond range) breakout yesterday. This looks a valid breakout until proven otherwise on a close back above the 1.2695 area – the risky part being that Brexit headlines can prove treacherous in either direction.
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