Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Read Saxo's Outrageous Predictions for 2026, our latest batch of low probability, but high impact ev...
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
Canada goes shopping
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: Canadians went on a shopping spree in March and USDCAD dipped on the news before retracing its steps as traders dug into the data.
Statistics Canada said that retail sales increased for the second consecutive month, rising 1.1% to $51.3 billion in March. Sales were higher in seven of 11 subsectors, representing 39% of retail trade. USDCAD dropped from 1.3396 to 1.3359 on the news. Unfortunately, the bulk of the shopping was done at gas pumps and the post data dollar sellers became dollar buyers lifting USDCAD back to 1.3389 (as of 1400 GMT) and unchanged since New York opened.
Nevertheless, the retail sales report was robust and supported the Bank of Canada view that earlier economic weakness was merely a “soft patch,” in part due to weak oil prices. They expect economic growth to pick up in Q2. Today’s data combined with the steady inflation and robust unemployment reports suggest next weeks Bank of Canada monetary policy statement could be a tad hawkish.
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3410, with the break of support at 1.3370 targeting further losses to 1.3320. However, US/China, US/Iran tensions, Brexit, and EU elections limit USDCAD downside as a stampede into safe-haven trades is only a headline away.
Nevertheless, the retail sales report was robust and supported the Bank of Canada view that earlier economic weakness was merely a “soft patch,” in part due to weak oil prices. They expect economic growth to pick up in Q2. Today’s data combined with the steady inflation and robust unemployment reports suggest next weeks Bank of Canada monetary policy statement could be a tad hawkish.
The intraday USDCAD technicals are bearish below 1.3410, with the break of support at 1.3370 targeting further losses to 1.3320. However, US/China, US/Iran tensions, Brexit, and EU elections limit USDCAD downside as a stampede into safe-haven trades is only a headline away.
There is a whiff of risk aversion in the air. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc are a tad firmer in New York trading while Theresa May’s latest Brexit plan failure extended GBPUSD losses and made it the worst performing currency since New York opened. US sanctions on more Chinese companies have sparked the latest bout of FX market angst even after Huawei was given a three-month reprieve.
Wall Street gave back a small part of yesterday’s gains in early trading, but the price action is just noise ahead of the release of the May 1, Federal Open Market Committee minutes in a few hours.
Wall Street gave back a small part of yesterday’s gains in early trading, but the price action is just noise ahead of the release of the May 1, Federal Open Market Committee minutes in a few hours.
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2026
-
-
Outrageous Predictions
A Fortune 500 company names an AI model as CEO
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Can AI be trusted to take over in the boardroom? With the right algorithms and balanced human oversi... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dollar dominance challenged by Beijing’s golden yuan
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Beijing does an end-run around the US dollar, setting up a framework for settling trade in a neutral... -
Outrageous Predictions
Obesity drugs for everyone – even for pets
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
The availability of GLP-1 drugs in pill form makes them ubiquitous, shrinking waistlines, even for p... -
Outrageous Predictions
Dumb AI triggers trillion-dollar clean-up
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Agentic AI systems are deployed across all sectors, and after a solid start, mistakes trigger a tril... -
Outrageous Predictions
Quantum leap Q-Day arrives early, crashing crypto and destabilizing world finance
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
A quantum computer cracks today’s digital security, bringing enough chaos with it that Bitcoin crash... -
Outrageous Predictions
SpaceX announces an IPO, supercharging extraterrestrial markets
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Financial markets go into orbit, to the moon and beyond as SpaceX expands rocket launches by orders-... -
Outrageous Predictions
Britain’s Great EU Backdoor Return
Neil Wilson
Investor Content Strategist
Faced with rolling fiscal, economic, trade and political crises the UK government sneaks back into t... -
Outrageous Predictions
Taylor Swift-Kelce wedding spikes global growth
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Next year’s most anticipated wedding inspires Gen Z to drop the doomscrolling and dial up the real w... -
Outrageous Predictions
Despite concerns, U.S. 2026 mid-term elections proceed smoothly
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
In spite of outstanding threats to the American democratic process, the US midterms come and go cord...