The Week Ahead: Bank of England, ECB seen on pause with RBA to hike; Amazon, Alphabet, Palantir top earnings bill

There has been a significant uptick in volatility in both FX and commodity (metals) markets in recent days, with first the yen, then the US dollar wobbling before gold and silver tumbled Thu-Fri after hitting fresh record highs. The backdrop then is for uncertainty, and we could see this volatility spread to equity markets, which have been reasonably calm in comparison.

The trading week ahead sees the Bank of England and European Central Bank both in action along with some hefty earnings releases on both sides of the Atlantic. While both the BoE and ECB are seen leaving interest rates unchanged this week the Reserve Bank of Australia by contrast is expected to hike. Palantir, Alphabet and Amazon lead the earnings schedule on Wall Street as one quarter of the S&P 500 report, while over here Vodafone, BT and GSK are scheduled to deliver their latest financial results.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 2 February

Two big earnings releases are the highlights with Disney and high beta AI play Palantir reporting. The focus for Disney is on an uplift in parks attendance, the success of recent films such as Zootopia 2 – the highest grossing Hollywood film in China ever - and the latest Avatar movie, which topped $1bn at the box office in just 18 days. Investors will also want to hear about the successor to CEO Bog Iger, whose replacement could be material to the share price reaction.

Palantir meanwhile reports after a ~25% pullback in the shares in the last three months since its Q3 ‘25 earnings. Thought it exceeded expectations with its last quarter some of the heat has come out of the AI trade as bubble fears started to surface, and we’ve seen Palantir act as a high-beta proxy for sentiment after its valuation got a little wild last year. Despite the Q3 beat the stock closed down 8% in the next session. For Q4, the focus is on the flow of new deals, US government contracts, margins and whether it beats its rule of 40 score (revenue growth + adjusted operating margin).

On the economic calendar global PMI surveys are due, while the highlight is the US ISM manufacturing PMI and prices index. Global PMI data suggests growth cooled to a six-month low in December, driven by some softness in the US.

Tuesday, 3 February

The Reserve Bank of Australia is the big event for FX markets. Recent upside surprises to the inflation data has markets leaning towards a hike. As my colleague John Hardy asks, could the huge repricing of the currency weigh in the RBA’s decision on Tuesday? He writes: “The market is leaning for a hike, which is about two-thirds priced in. A no-go on a rate move could see a further consolidation in AUD pairs, seeing AUDUSD testing perhaps 0.6900 or lower, but a “hawkish hold” that firmly sets up an anticipated hike at the following RBA meeting could soften the damage for AUD pairs. Of course, the RBA could just steam ahead with a rate hike and AUD could find support at higher levels if commodities prices likewise find a low and the USD remains broadly weak. No anticipation of a major reversal and AUD unless we see a collapse in metals prices, an ugly risk sentiment in equity markets and a rally in global bonds.”

Earnings season continues with updates from Amgen, Ball Corp, Merck, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, AMD and Mondelez. 

Wednesday, 4 February

It’s a big day for earnings. Alphabet tops the bill over in the US with the stock having run up 67% in the last 12 months and largely shrugged off any concerns investors might have had about the AI bubble. Arm Holdings, Uber, Qualcomm and Snap are also due to report. Weight-loss drugmakers Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will provide updates, with investors focused on their oral pills. After a dreadful 2025, investors will hope that Novo’s Wegovy GLP-1 weight loss pill offers a path to growth. Staying in Denmark, brewer Carlsberg is on the slate to report. In the UK, we look updates from SSE, GSK and Watches of Switzerland.

On the economic calendar traders will be eyeing the latest Eurozone CPI inflation report. Inflation has come down markedly in the bloc lately, returning to the ECB’s 2% target. In the US, watch for the ADP employment numbers as a prelude to the NFP report on Friday, while the ISM Services PMI is always closely watched.

Thursday,5 February

Next in line from the Magnificent 7, Amazon reports quarterly earnings amid questions about AI capex with recent reports about a possible $50bn investment in OpenAI raising a few eyebrows. A key catalyst for the stock will be the pace of AWS growth after Microsoft’s cloud growth disappointed – is it a stock specific problem for MSFT or a wider trend?

In Britain, FTSE heavyweights Shell, Vodafone and BT are due to report their latest financial results. Anglo American provides its Q4 production update.

But the main focus for investors on this side of the pond will be the Bank of England interest rate decision. With the Monetary Policy Committee divided it seems likely the Bank will remain on hold, as despite the softening labour market and falling inflation, it appears too soon for another cut. The BoE cut in December but governor Andrew Bailey suggested they would slow the pace of cuts. The 5-4 vote split also indicates there is no agreement on the need for further cuts, let alone any urgency. The ECB will also announce its interest rate decision – it too is expected to remain on hold and may be so for a while longer.

Friday, 6 February

Jobs day! US Nonfarm Payrolls data is the market’s most closely watched data this week. It will be a signal to the market about whether Federal Reserve is on course to cut rates again or not. But the survey offers a less clear view of the state of the economy than it used to as immigration policy changes by the Trump administration has materially altered the supply of labour. Paying extra close attention to the data will be incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, who President Trump nominated to replace incumbent Jay Powell on Friday. December’s report showed only 50k jobs created, following a similarly soft 56k rise in November, and unemployment was at a four-year high 4.4%. However, following the January Fed meeting it seems that a more significant downturn in the labour market will be required for the central bank to cut rates – so this report will be important for guiding market expectations.