The Week Ahead: Trump in Davos, Netflix & Intel earnings & UK jobs report key for Bank of England

Geopolitics continues to underpin market action and this week should be another busy one as Donald Trump heads to Davos for the annual World Economic Forum. The Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the case of Fed governor Lisa Cook, whilst we still await its judgment on tariffs. The Bank of Japan meets but is not expected to hike. Netflix and Intel headline the earnings calendar on Wall Street. UK jobs and inflation data will be pivotal for the Bank of England decision next month. Quarterly China GDP figures are due at the start of the week, whilst flash PMIs are out on Friday.

Here’s the key events to watch over the next week.

Monday, 19 January

The annual World Economic Forum kicks off in Davos, Switzerland, with President Trump leading a huge US delegation. He’s among 60 heads of state who will attend the event the world grapples with Trump’s reshaping of the global order. Meanwhile Eurozone finance ministers meet in Brussels to choose a nominee to be the next ECB vice president, with Luis de Guindos set to vacate the seat in May. The Fed’s blackout period before its 27-28 January policy meeting begins.

China releases its mainland GDP data for the fourth quarter, likely slowing to 4.5%, the weakest since the first quarter of 2023. Industrial production, retail sales and investment data is released as well.

US markets will be closed for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Tuesday, 20 January

Today is the date set by President Donald Trump for banks to cap US credit card interest rates at 10% for a year. It’s also the deadline for the UK government’s decision on China’s mega-embassy at Royal Mint Court in London.

Netflix earnings are the highlight with investors focused on whether advertising revenue and subscriber trends can reignite growth. Shares are under pressure, -30% in last 6 months. Q3 numbers were soft and Q4 guidance underwhelmed, whilst there is the overhang from the pending Warner Bros acquisition. We look to see if the ad revenues can surprise to the upside.

UK jobless numbers are going to be super important for whether the Bank of England cuts next month. Stronger-than-expected GDP growth in November is at odds with an increasingly soft labour market. Unemployment has risen to 5.1%, the highest level since January 2021, whilst payrolls are cratering, down 0.5% in the year to October. Wage growth has also cooled, and inflation is trending sharply down, which ought to give the green light for a series of rate cuts by the BoE this year. However, the Bank has been very cautious about cutting too aggressively due to the stickiness of inflation in the UK versus other countries. Survey data suggests steep job losses in recent months continued through to the end of the year.

Wednesday, 21 January

President Donald Trump is due to address the WEF in Davos – markets will be on guard for commentary about trade and diplomatic policy shifts. ECB President Christine Lagarde is also due to the speak at the event.

The US Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments in the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who Trump has sought to fire. The judgment, should it arrive, could be material to market worries about Fed independence. A ruling on Trump’s tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is also anticipated at some point, though a firm date has not been set.

UK CPI inflation is going to be the driver of price action in sterling crosses when released at the usual time of 7am. We’ve seen a big step-down in inflation as the UK increasingly looks less of an outlier compared to peers. The CPI fell to 3.2% in November from 3.6% in October and the BoE sees it moving towards its 2% target this year.

Earnings today come from Johnson & Johnson and oilfield services company Halliburton, which has been a popular trade of late following the US involvement in Venezuela and ambitions to regenerate the country’s oil industry.

Thursday, 22 January

US inflation data is the main event on the economic calendar – core PCE inflation is the Fed’s preferred gauge. The latest CPI report indicated inflation remained subdued at the last look. Final US GDP numbers and weekly employment is also due out. The ECB publishes account of its December policy meeting, whilst UK public sector net borrowing data will be one to watch for sterling and gilt markets.

Intel headlines the earnings calendar today. It’s been on a tear since the administration took a stake in the chipmaker. Abbott Laboratories, GE Aerospace, Procter & Gamble and Intuitive Surgical are also due to report.

Friday, 23 January

The Bank of Japan meets to set interest rates. It’s expected to stay on hold and is most likely to wait until April before hiking again, although there has been increasing chatter about some members of the BoJ seeing scope to move sooner due to the persistently weak yen.

Flash PMI data for the US, Eurozone and UK are due out. These provide the first look at economic activity, inflation and labour market trends for January.

SLB – another oilfield services stock that’s jumped this year on the back of hopes for access to Venezuela’s oil – reports earnings. Investors will be keen to hear any updates on Venezuela, with reports indicating the company is in talks with US officials and Chevron about expanding in the Caribbean nation. Shares in SLB have risen around 15% since the US captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on 3 January.