The Week Ahead: Nvidia earnings pivotal to AI trade, focus returns to US economic data as government reopens

It’s another busy week for financial markets as investors look to the US government reopening to see delayed economic data releases, while flash PMI surveys will detail the state of advanced economies. 

But the main event is certain to be Wednesday’s earnings update from Nvidia, which will be pivotal to sentiment around the AI trade. 

Monday, 17 November

The longest US government shutdown in history has left markets blind as to key inflation and labour market data. It’s unclear how quickly the backlog of data will be released, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics is likely to put out an updated schedule at the early part of the week, perhaps on Monday. The September payrolls report, originally due 3 Oct, should be released in short order, but there could be significant delays to the October report, perhaps another week. Some reports have suggested it may never be released. Inflation data was not collected during October so we may have to wait until December for the November report.

The Empire State manufacturing index is on the slate, as is Canadian inflation data and the UK’s Rightmove house price index. Starting the week off before all these we get preliminary GDP data from Japan, which comes as the country’s new prime minister is setting out a path that will nudge the Bank of Japan into slowing rate hikes. Several Fed speakers are due up, including governor Christopher Waller.

Not much in the way of earnings but Rheinmetall kicks off its two-day capital markets event and Deutsche Bank hosts an investor day in London.

Tuesday, 18 November

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is due to meet US President Donald Trump at the White House, his first trip to Washington in seven years, with energy markets and regional security among the main topics likely to be discussed.

Very little on the economic calendar – excepting for any potential delayed releases from the US. Earnings come from Baidu, Medtronic and The Home Depot, the first of the big US retailers to report Q3 numbers this week as we get a look at the health of the US consumer in the runup to the shutdown. In the UK, Imperial Brands reports earnings.

Wednesday, 19 November

Nvidia, which reports Q3 earnings after the closing bell, is undoubtedly the highlight and the key to equity markets. The entire AI trade likely depends on this in the near term at least, after we’ve seen some wobbles amid AI bubble/valuation concerns. Earnings are seen +54% to $1.25 per share with revenues +56% yoy to $54.8bn. Analysts are sounding upbeat ahead of the report with guidance expected to be strong on continued ramp of the GB300 advanced AI servers and insatiable AI demand as hyperscalers continue to bolster capex.

In the UK, earnings reports come from Severn Trent, Jet2 and Sage Group.

On the economic data front, UK inflation figures will be market-moving as they will help pinpoint how quickly the Bank of England needs to cut interest rates. The October data, coming a week before the Budget, is expected to show that inflation peaked at 3.8% in September. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting are also due out and will be looked at for details about the growing split among members over the requirement for further rate cuts. 

Thursday, 20 November

Weekly unemployment claims data is on the calendar, but the reopening of the US government means we cannot be sure of whether this is going to arrive. The Philly Fed manufacturing index will be released. CBI industrial orders expectations provides some insight into how businesses in the UK are feeling ahead of the Budget next week. Several Fed speakers are on the slate, while the national core CPI inflation data from Japan rounds out theday.

Earnings focus is on Walmart ahead of the opening bell – investors keen to see how much consumers are spending and how the company is executing on its online business and loyalty scheme. In Q2 the retailer posted 25% growth in ecommerce sales and 15% rise in Sam’s Club/Walmart+ membership income globally. The company has guided for adjusted EPS of $0.58 to $0.60, with operating income growing in a range of 3-6%. Forecasts suggest it will come in around 5.2% with EPS at $0.61 and revenues +4.5% at $177.1bn.

A clutch of UK earnings reports from Halma, Johnson Matthey, JD Sports and Close Brothers.

Friday, 21 November

Flash PMI survey data for November will offer key clues as to the likely path for central banks in the coming weeks. With the shutdown of the government curtailing official data releases the US PMI data will provide some welcome clarity around business activity as well as hiring and inflation trends. The University of Michigan also releases its closely watched consumer sentiment and inflation surveys. The UK’s PMI is expected to show further cooling in inflation pressures as it did in October. Eurozone PMIs will be analysed for the extent of tariff damage and front-loading as well as to what extent political instability in France has impacted sentiment.