Senior Quantitative Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Lithium-related companies experienced a selloff last week amid worries over a potentially weaker demand, and the theme made the biggest move in our weekly thematic screener.
In our weekly publication series we monitor trends in a pool of more than 40 ETF equity themes. Every week we focus on one themes which have moved the most in the previous week relative to its usual trading pattern and volatility, and we provide an unbiased sample of companies within the theme. This week the we describe the theme which has made the largest deviation from the usual trading pattern.
The growth in lithium demand has been huge over the last couple of years as it is a key component in the electric transportation industry. However, last week was a tough one for lithium-exposed companies amid worries over a potentially weaker demand from Chinese firms, and major players in the lithium industry saw a significant drop in their share price. Goldman Sachs also reaffirmed their bearish view on lithium, stating that the supply of lithium will start to outpace the demand from 2023 and onward, despite a growing demand for electric vehicles.
The list below illustrates 10 different companies within the theme. They are spanning a broad area of the theme and is intended as an inspirational list only:
How the list was created: Each theme consists of a number of companies from ETFs and indices within the given theme. The list above is created by sampling 10 different companies from the theme, making sure that the companies have a low mutual correlation within the theme, such that they span a broad part of the overall theme. Note that this is based on historical performance which is not an indicator for future returns. The list is for inspirational purpose only and should not be considered as trade recommendations in any way.
Price evolution of a thematic ETF within the theme - over 6 months and 5 years, respectively:
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
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