Tesla, Meta, Microsoft earnings: Near-term catalysts for the AI megacap stocks reporting Wednesday

Microsoft

Microsoft is expected to report revenues rising more than 15% this quarter, its FY26 Q2, to $80.3bn, accelerating from the 12.3% rise in the same quarter a year ago, with adjusted EPS of $3.91. MSFT tends to beat marginally on revenue estimates. Revenues in its fiscal Q1 rose 18%, driven largely by its cloud and AI business.

AI capex and monetisation is the key for Microsoft for near-term catalysts in either direction. The stock came under pressure in October when the company revised its capex guidance, stating that spending growth would accelerate next year not slow. Capex for the current fiscal year, which ends in June, is seen reaching $100bn.

Azure remains critical and we look at whether Microsoft can achieve the 37% growth in its Azure and other cloud servicesrevenue that itforecast for Q2 in its last earnings report, down from the 39% (constant currency) reported in Q1.A big question is adoption of its enterprise AI services, particularly the Microsoft 365 Copilot add-on. 

Shares took a sizeable hit following the July-October double top, with price action slipping below the 200-day moving average, which currently stands at around $484.55. The $450 region has held but we can see near-term resistance at the descending 50-day line. MACD looks to show momentum turning more positive.

Meta

Sentiment around Meta shares will be driven by the AI capex and monetisation narrative. Meta raised its FY 2025 guidance for capex to between $70bn and $72bn, from a prior estimate of $66bn to $72bn, whilst also raising the low end of its total expenses for the year by $2bn. Investors will be seeking clarity around the 2026 capex plans, particularly given the move to cut spending on Metaverse by around 30%. Meta generates almost all revenues from digital advertising which means shares tend to be punished or rewarded for capital discipline a little more than other hyperscalers.It’s thought that Meta could hike capex spending in 2026 by around 60% to $110bn, according to FactSet. At least a one-time tax charge worth almost $16bn relating to President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill won’t be repeated this quarter.

A key test that could prove a near-term catalyst is the improvements in ad accuracy and efficiency from AI used across WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook.I will be paying close attention to what kind of commentary CEO Mark Zuckerberg offers on that front on the earnings call.Overall revenues are seenrising over 20% to $58.4bn, with EPS at $8.21.

I think the key test for the stock near-term is can advertising revenue growth offset capex worries?

Meta stock has risen about 3% this year, but sentiment is noticeably positive coming into earningsand price action is approaching the 200-day line that was broken to the downside last year following the gap down on 29 Oct last year. Looks like a big test around this level around $680 where it meets the near-term descending trendline.