Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 in bearish trends. Could be in for a rough October Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 in bearish trends. Could be in for a rough October Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 in bearish trends. Could be in for a rough October

Technical Update - SP 500 and Nasdaq 100 in bearish trends. Could be in for a rough October

Equities 3 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  In this analysis:
S&P 500 and US500 cfd
Nasdaq 100 and USNAS100 cfd


S&P 500 is continuing its move towards 4,200 and the Shoulder-Head- Shoulder potential target level.

The two vertical arrows are indicating the potential distance S&P can move after is has broken below the Neckline.
If S&P 500 does travel the indicated distance there is potential down to 4,050.  However, often the distance is cut short to around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at around 4,155 which is very close to the 200 Moving Average and the upper range of the Consolidation area

The 200 daily Moving Average sits currently just above the 0.618 Fibo level will add some support.

RSI is below the 40 threshold adding to the bearish outlook.

To demolish the SHS pattern a close above 4,540 is needed. 

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

US500 cfd: took out 4,266 minor support only to bounce from the 200 Moving Average and 4,200.

The bounce can continue a bit higher but the trend is down. If US500 takes out 4,200 it could fuel a sell-off down to 4,100-4,050

A closed above 4,335 will short-term demolish the bearish picture

Nasdaq 100 has been rejected at the 100 Moving Average and failing to close the break-away gap.  

RSI, which has been indicating negative sentiment since mid-August, is below the 40 threshold adding to the bearish outlook strongly indicating Nasdaq will slide lower in coming weeks.

Next support at around 14,254 but Nasdaq could be hit with heavy selling dropping to around 14,590. 200 daily Moving Average will offer some support

To reverse the bearish trend a close above 15,245 is needed. A close of the gap would be first indication of that scenario to play out

USNAS100 cfd bouncing somewhat after another day of selling. The 100 Moving Average seems to act as a resistance.
RSI is en negative sentiment suggesting lower levels are likely.
Support at 14,250 and at around 13,568

To demolish the bearish picture a close above 15,271 is needed

Latest Market Insights


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

Saxo
40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
London
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992