Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: In this analysis:
S&P 500 and US500 cfd
Nasdaq 100 and USNAS100 cfd
S&P 500 is continuing its move towards 4,200 and the Shoulder-Head- Shoulder potential target level.
The two vertical arrows are indicating the potential distance S&P can move after is has broken below the Neckline.
If S&P 500 does travel the indicated distance there is potential down to 4,050. However, often the distance is cut short to around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at around 4,155 which is very close to the 200 Moving Average and the upper range of the Consolidation area
The 200 daily Moving Average sits currently just above the 0.618 Fibo level will add some support.
RSI is below the 40 threshold adding to the bearish outlook.
To demolish the SHS pattern a close above 4,540 is needed.
US500 cfd: took out 4,266 minor support only to bounce from the 200 Moving Average and 4,200.
The bounce can continue a bit higher but the trend is down. If US500 takes out 4,200 it could fuel a sell-off down to 4,100-4,050
A closed above 4,335 will short-term demolish the bearish picture
Nasdaq 100 has been rejected at the 100 Moving Average and failing to close the break-away gap.
RSI, which has been indicating negative sentiment since mid-August, is below the 40 threshold adding to the bearish outlook strongly indicating Nasdaq will slide lower in coming weeks.
Next support at around 14,254 but Nasdaq could be hit with heavy selling dropping to around 14,590. 200 daily Moving Average will offer some support
To reverse the bearish trend a close above 15,245 is needed. A close of the gap would be first indication of that scenario to play out USNAS100 cfd bouncing somewhat after another day of selling. The 100 Moving Average seems to act as a resistance.
RSI is en negative sentiment suggesting lower levels are likely.
Support at 14,250 and at around 13,568
Bond. Long Bond(s)
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Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach